[Focus] Singapore Economy/Exports

[Cobra]

Agence France-Presse - 11/16/2007 7:40 AM

Singapore key exports grow 6.8 percent in October

Singapore's main exports rose at an annual rate of 6.8 percent in October, boosted by robust shipments of petrochemical and pharmaceutical goods, the government said Friday.

Last month's 6.8 percent jump in non-oil domestic exports (NODX), which were valued at 15.8 billion Singapore dollars (11 billion US), was at the higher end of industry estimates for a 4.5-7.9 percent rise.

On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, NODX fell 0.2 percent in October following a 1.5 percent decline in the previous month, said the trade promotion body International Enterprise Singapore (IE Singapore).

Total trade in October rose 15.5 percent to 77.9 billion dollars, it said.

A sharp 19.8 percent rise in non-electronic exports, made up mainly of pharmaceuticals and petrochemicals, cushioned a 7.2 percent drop in electronics shipments, the ninth straight month of decline.

Weaker shipments of disk drives, integrated circuits and telecommunications equipment pulled down electronic exports last month, said IE Singapore. The sector is dependent on global demand.

In the non-electronic sector, pharmaceutical exports rose 15.1 percent to 1.8 billion dollars while petrochemicals increased 18.6 percent to 1.3 billion dollars.

"The growth of non-electronic NODX was contributed by higher domestic exports of ships and boats, pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals and non-monetary gold," the trade promotion body said.

For October, non-electronic exports were valued at 9.2 billion dollars while electronics were worth 6.6 billion dollars, IE Singapore said.

Exports to key Asian markets increased while shipments to the European Union and the United States fell last month.

NODX to China rose 10.9 percent to 1.4 billion dollars, while to Thailand they rose by 10.1 percent, to 810 million dollars, and to South Korea they increased by 14.8 percent to 560 million dollars, IE Singapore said.

In contrast, Singapore's NODX to the European Union fell 7.5 percent to 2.5 billion dollars, mainly because of the drop in electronic exports, it said.

Exports to the United States fell by 1.7 percent to 2.3 billion dollars, but the decline was less than the 8.3 percent fall in September.

The monthly trade figures are a closely-watched measure of Singapore's trade-reliant economy, which is projected to grow 7.0-8.0 percent this year.

[Vorsprung durch Technik]

hopefully end of the year, everyone gets fatter bonuses... so envy... i never get any over the past few years... 

[zuoom]

Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore's economy probably contracted last quarter, ending the longest expansion since 1991, after the manufacturing industry had its worst performance in 4 1/2 years.

Gross domestic product shrank an annualized 3.2 percent in the three months ended December, matching the government's initial estimate, according to the median forecast of 13 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The economy grew 4.3 percent in the previous quarter. The trade ministry's report is due at 8 a.m. in Singapore tomorrow.

Manufacturers in Singapore and across Asia are facing slower demand for their products amid signs the U.S., the region's largest export market, is heading for a recession. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's government expects economy to expand at the slowest pace in five years in 2008.

``The softening U.S. economy and the volatility in global markets mean the external environment will be tougher this year for Singapore than it was in 2007,'' said Ho Woei Chen, an economist at United Overseas Bank Ltd. in Singapore. ``Growth will certainly moderate.''

From a year earlier, the economy probably expanded 6 percent in the fourth quarter after growing 8.9 percent in the previous three months, according to the median forecast of 16 economists in the Bloomberg survey. That matches the government's advanced growth estimate released on Jan. 2.

Manufacturing rose 0.2 percent last quarter, slower than the government's Jan. 2 estimate of 0.5 percent, according to the Economic Development Board. The island's electronic shipments have declined each month since February, contributing to the island's worst annual export performance since 2002.

Lower Forecasts

Economists at UBS AG and United Overseas Bank Ltd. are among those who have lowered their forecasts for Singapore's expansion this year. The median estimate for 2008 growth is 5.9 percent, a separate Bloomberg survey showed.

The government expects a rate of growth of between 4.5 percent and 6.5 percent this year, after the economy expanded an estimated 7.5 percent in 2007.

Demand for services and construction activity may help offset a slowdown in manufacturing this year, economists said.

``Tourism arrivals are expected to remain strong this year as Singapore hosts events such as the Formula 1 night race and that will help support the services sector,'' Ho said. ``We're expecting the construction industry to remain buoyant based on projects that have already been awarded.''

The following table gives forecasts for the percentage change in gross domestic product from a year earlier and the annualized, seasonally adjusted change from the previous quarter. Economists also provided growth estimates for 2007 and 2008.



----------------------------------------------------------
GDP GDP GDP GDP
Firm YoY QoQ saar 2007 2008
----------------------------------------------------------
Median 6.0% -3.2% 7.5% 5.9%
Average 6.0% -2.7% 7.5% 5.7%
High 7.1% 1.1% 7.8% 6.6%
Low 4.7% -4.0% 7.2% 4.4%
Number of Estimates 16 13 14 11
----------------------------------------------------------
Action Economics 6.0% -3.2% 7.5% 5.0%
Barclays Capital 6.7% 1.1% 7.7% 5.9%
CIMB-GK Research 6.1% -2.6% 7.6% 6.5%
Citi 5.9% -3.5% 7.5% 5.6%
DBS Bank 5.9% -3.5% 7.5% 6.5%
Forecast Ltd. 7.1% -0.7% 7.8% --
Fortis Bank 6.3% -2.3% 7.6% --
HSBC Singapore 5.8% -4.0% 7.5% 6.0%
JPMorgan Chase 6.1% -2.8% 7.6% 4.4%
Lehman Brothers 6.0% -3.2% -- --
Nomura Singapore 6.0% -- 7.5% 6.6%
OCBC Bank 5.9% -- 7.4% 6.0%
Sumitomo Mitsui Banking 4.7% -3.7% 7.2% 4.8%
Standard Chartered 5.9% -3.6% 7.5% --
Thomson IFR 6.0% -- -- --
UOB Group 6.0% -3.0% 7.5% 5.5%
----------------------------------------------------------

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFarjmw.pGdY&refer=home

read via : http://forums.vr-zone.com/showthread.php?t=237015
*bigsale

[zuoom]

Singapore May exports in sharpest fall since Jan '06

SINGAPORE, June 17 - Singapore's May non-oil exports unexpectedly fell 9.8 percent after seasonal adjustments from April, the sharpest fall since January 2006, providing new evidence that a global slowdown may be weighing on Asian exports.

Annual shipments fell across its top 10 export markets except Indonesia and Taiwan, with Europe and the United States leading declines. Exports to Europe slumped 28 percent from a year ago, while shipments to the United States dropped 22 percent.

The May fall compared with market expectations for a 1.1 percent rise, and followed a 1.6 percent gain in April when shipments unexpectedly rose .

Economists said the surprise decline may be a sign that consumer demand was weakening as the global economy slows, and said sluggish exports could drag on the Singapore economy in the second quarter.

"It's a warning sign of possible slowing in demand," said David Cohen, an economist at Action Economics.

"But the fact is that data from elsewhere in the region China, South Korea and Taiwan would allow us to shrug it off as month-to-month volatility."

A slid in volatile drug shipments and further weakness in electronics exports dragged annual shipments down 10.5 percent to S$12.4 billion, trade agency International Enterprise Singapore said in a statement.

That compared with a revised 5.3 percent rise in April, and with a median forecast in a Reuters poll for an annual rise of 1.9 percent.

The Singapore economy is heavily dependent on trade, and non-oil domestic exports were worth about 70 percent of the city-state's gross domestic product last year.

Economists had expected monthly exports in May to rise slightly as higher petrochemical and drug shipments offset persistent weakness in electronic goods.

May's electronics shipments fell 8.5 percent from a year ago while drugs exports dropped 48.5 percent in the same period. Petrochemicals slipped 2.6 percent.

Singapore's non-oil domestic exports, which comprise of goods that have been manufactured in Singapore or undergone further processing, include mobile phones, medical instruments, and active ingredients for some blockbuster drugs.

Shipments from export-reliant Asia are expected to slow this year as a global credit crunch and a crisis-stricken U.S. housing sector take a toll on demand for the continent's output, although evidence of a slowdown has been mixed so far.

South Korea's exports hit a near four-year high in May, preliminary data showed, while Taiwan's May exports accelerated at a faster-than-expected pace of 20.5 percent.

Some economists said firm demand from emerging Asian markets such as China has helped to offset weakening demand from the United States and Europe.

Singapore's annual exports to China fell a slight 1.5 percent in May, a pullback from April's 19 percent rise.

Despite mounting concerns of a slowing economy, the Singapore central bank tightened monetary policy in April in its most aggressive move since the 2003 SARS outbreak to rein in 26-year high inflation.

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20080617/tap-singapore-economy-exports-c3bb44c.html

[zuoom]

By Ng Bao Ying, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 11 August 2008 0902 hrs

SINGAPORE: Singapore's full year economic growth is likely to come in at the lower end of the revised four to five per cent range, according to the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI).

The Ministry warned on Monday that Singapore is in for a rough ride ahead, although it will stay above water.

The second half of the year is also likely to look like the first half, which saw weaknesses in pharmaceuticals and electronics weighing down on growth.

Electronics will remain soft due to weak semiconductor demand, while biomedical manufacturing will see strong competition from generic drugs and approval delays.

Strengths remain the construction and services sector.

The Ministry also noted that labour productivity has continued to dip, especially in sectors like hotels and restaurants.

MTI said it expects to see job losses in sectors like manufacturing by year end due to a dip in labour productivity, reminiscent of cycles before.

However, the Ministry said that it is unsure of the magnitude of the job losses.

Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.1 per cent on year in the second quarter, down from 6.9 per cent in the first.

Growth for the first half was 4.5 per cent.

- CNA/yb

read it via : http://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/showthread.php?t=2054784

[zuoom]

as long as the economy grew, we are ok.

but once we slow down and fall back. we will suffer.

it's a domino effect. (and the first couple of tiles have started to tilt n fall.)

[Cobra]

Its already coming down and will come down further ... question is what are you going to do ?

Everyone is cutting cost, more scrutiny on contracts and proposals, customers hold back on spending and investments .... but life still need to go on ... businesses still need to continue ...

Question is . Is there an opportunity from these reactions ? Is this an opportunty for you to take your competition's share ? Think... Think... Be Creative ...

[zuoom]

personally, it's crunch time.

will take the opportunity to shed excess fat. ie: reduce wastage, cost, personals that's no good. etc.

to take competition share, of course. that will take another angle to do business. the current set of doing business is too wasteful. too much time spent looking thru records, verifying etc.

i want the example of Fedex/DHL. call in, "may i have your Name or Company or Account number?"
"Good morning, is this XXX, at XXXXX location?"
"how many package? ... ok, pick up at 10:20am. good day."

done. holy smokes, their CRM/ERP solution is the sh!te.   

[zuoom]

[youtube]AQdcahrcrXY[/youtube]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQdcahrcrXY

Japan's economy is heavily reliant on exports, but as the yen strengthens against the dollar it is getting harder to shift the goods.

Exporters are facing a slowdown in trade amid the global credit crunch and are having to examine other markets in order to remain profitable.

Al Jazeera's Marga Ortigas reports from Yokohama.

=========

not just us.

[zuoom]

it's here.

the domino stacks are on dropping.

[youtube=425,350]YocnQ0NMTUA[/youtube]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YocnQ0NMTUA

22 terabytes.... 14.500 Euros...

via : vrz

is there a way to stop it?

or just let it finish itself off?

there's a start, there must be an end... right?

all, good luck.
z.

[zuoom]

Jul 3rd 2008
From The Economist print edition
Many currencies that are backed by a current-account deficit are now falling just as the dollar has

ACCORDING to economic textbooks, the currencies of economies with large current-account deficits should depreciate relative to those of countries with surpluses. This will stimulate their exports and curb imports, thereby helping to slim the trade gaps. America has the world’s biggest current-account deficit and the dollar has dutifully been falling since 2002. Oddly, however, the currencies of many other countries with large deficits had enjoyed big gains until recently. Now, at last, currency markets have started to see sense.

Britain, Australia, New Zealand and Iceland all have large current-account deficits (along with many other American-style excesses, such as housing and credit booms). Yet over several years until mid-2007, their currencies perversely rose relative to those of economies, such as Japan and Switzerland, with big surpluses. For example, despite a current-account surplus of 4.9% of GDP last year, one of the biggest of any developed economy, Japan’s trade-weighted exchange rate sank by 13% from the end of 2002 to mid-2007. New Zealand, where the deficit reached 8% of GDP (bigger than America’s deficit of 6% of GDP at its peak), saw its currency gain 28% over the same period.

This paradox is the result of the “carry trade”, a popular currency strategy that partly explains why trade flows are now dwarfed by cross-border capital flows. In a world of low interest rates, international investors were hungry for yield, and so piled into currencies that offered higher interest rates, namely those of Britain, Australia, New Zealand and Iceland, as well as many emerging markets. Those higher interest rates paid by countries with large external deficits were supposed to compensate investors for the risk of currency depreciation. But as investors borrowed in low-interest currencies, such as the yen, to invest in high-yielding ones, this made the latter currencies stronger. That, in turn, prolonged global imbalances by making it easier for profligate countries to finance their current-account deficits.

But since the eruption of global financial turmoil last year and the dwindling appetite for risk, carry trades have started to unwind and it has become harder to finance deficits. As a result, current-account imbalances are once again exerting a powerful influence over currencies. The chart shows that the weakest currencies this year have been in countries with deficits, from Britain to South Africa. In contrast, the yen and the Swiss franc have perked up. The same chart a year or so ago would have shown virtually the opposite relationship.



Increased concern about current-account deficits is also causing investors to discriminate much more between emerging markets. A popular argument in recent years has been that developing economies are less risky because, unlike a decade ago, they are no longer dependent on foreign capital. It is true that emerging economies are forecast to have a combined current-account surplus of more than $800 billion this year, but this is more than accounted for by China, Russia and the Gulf oil exporters. In fact over half of the 25 biggest emerging economies now have deficits. South Korea is running a deficit after a decade of surpluses. Brazil has also moved back into the red, despite record high prices for its commodity exports. Others such as India, South Africa and Turkey have had external deficits for many years.

Sticking to our “mercantilist” guns

In an article last November, The Economist ranked 15 of the biggest emerging economies according to their economic riskiness. Based on the size of external and budget deficits, inflation rates and the pace of growth in bank lending, India, Turkey and Hungary were deemed to be most vulnerable. The ranking attracted a lot of flak in India. An article in the Times of India accused The Economist of “mercantilist thinking at its worst” by treating a current-account surplus as good, a deficit bad. Agreed, a current-account deficit is not necessarily bad: an economy may be borrowing from abroad to finance investment that will lift future growth. Nevertheless, a large deficit does mean that an economy and its currency may struggle if foreign-capital inflows suddenly dry up.

And this is what has happened. This year foreign capital has gone into reverse at the same time as India’s current-account deficit has widened sharply. Sharmila Whelan, an economist at CLSA, a brokerage firm, forecasts that India’s current-account deficit will rise to almost 4% of GDP in the current fiscal year, and to 5.5% next year. Not only is the trade deficit soaring, largely as a result of higher oil prices; the overseas earnings of Indian IT services companies (two-fifths of which come from the financial sector) are likely to shrink this year.

The nature of the capital inflows financing a deficit also matters. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is less volatile than speculative capital inflows. If we assume that net FDI continues at last year’s pace, then it would more than finance the expected current-account deficits in Brazil and Mexico this year. In contrast, net FDI might finance less than one-third of India’s deficit and only one-sixth of South Africa’s, implying that their currencies are more at risk. The rupee has fallen by almost 10% against the dollar since late last year. Ms Whelan forecasts that it will drop by another 9% by March 2009.

Central banks in the developing world are now worried that falling currencies will exacerbate inflationary pressures. A year ago most emerging economies were intervening heavily to hold their currencies down; now many in Asia, including India, South Korea, Vietnam and Thailand, are having to sell dollars to prop their exchange rates up. The prime exception is China, where hot money continues to pour in and where the current account has a massive surplus.

The longer that international investors remain risk-averse, the more attention they are likely to pay to current-account imbalances. A few currencies seem to have been overlooked: those of Australia, Poland and Hungary have so far held up surprisingly well, despite their gaping external deficits. All three now look overvalued. They could be the next dominoes to fall.

via : http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11667810&fsrc=RSS

[tags] Domino Effect

[zuoom]

US woes: S'pore may be worst hit

SINGAPORE is likely to be the Asian economy that is worst affected by a United States recession, said economists. This is because it is one of the most open economies and has a large manufacturing sector.
 
They were commenting a day after the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - a private, non-profit research body - concluded that the US has been in recession since December last year.

Unusually, the NBER does not define a recession as two straight quarters of shrinking economic output. Instead, it looks for a decline in economic activity, spread across the economy, and lasting more than a few months. The figures it uses include overall economic output, industrial production, payroll employment, personal incomes, and wholesale and retail trade.

source

via : http://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/showthread.php?t=2184874&page=2

[zuoom]

Singapore economy may shrink next year - PM

Singapore's economy may shrink next year, the country's prime minister said on Friday, as the trade-dependent island is hit by a sharp drop in demand for its products and services on the back of the world economic crisis.

Lee Hsien Loong, speaking to journalists at a lunch hosted by Singapore's Foreign Correspondents Association, also said he expected unemployment to rise, particularly in the manufacturing industries, which account for about a quarter of its economy.

Lee, the son of Singapore's founding father and former Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew, faces his biggest test since taking office four years ago.

The economy is already in recession and with major demand centres including the United States and Europe also in recession, the outlook for Singapore for next year is bleak, economists have said.

Last month, the government pledged to spend S$2.3 billion to help firms get credit and said it would run a larger budget deficit to support an economy that it said could shrink 1 percent in 2009 and at best would expand 2 percent.

Lee said the government would partly rely on construction projects to try to help growth with the cost of projects coming down.

"It makes sense for us to take advantage of that," he said.

The government plans an expansionary January budget and is trying to diversify away from manufacturing into service industries such as finance and tourism. (Reporting by Neil Chatterjee and Kevin Lim; Writing by Jan Dahinten; Editing by Neil Fullick)

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20081205/tap-singapore-economy-c3bb44c.html

via : http://forums.vr-zone.com/showthread.php?t=361651

==========

may? we wish..

[zuoom]

Thu, Dec 11, 2008
Reuters

HONG KONG- Singapore is poised to be emerging Asia's worst-performing economy next year, when it is likely to remain entrenched in recession as the global downturn erodes demand for its exports, a Reuters poll shows.

The poll predicts the island state's gross domestic product (GDP) will contract 1.1 percent in 2009. That marks a rapid deterioration in the economic environment from two months ago as the global financial crisis has deepened - a similar poll in late September forecast 4.6 percent GDP growth in 2009.

"Singapore is particularly open to external trade - its export-to-GDP ratio is more than 180 percent, compared with an Asia average of 60-70 percent," said Eric Tsang, an analyst at Calyon in Hong Kong.

"So as U.S., European and Japanese consumers spend less that will hurt Singapore's exports and have a knock-on effect on the rest of the economy."

Economists see some rebound in 2010, forecasting 4.2 percent growth, but that would be well below average annual growth of 6.8 percent between 2003 and 2007.

Singapore slipped into recession - defined as two quarters of negative quarterly growth - in the third quarter.

Philip McNicholas, an economist at Ideal Global in Singapore, said the first quarter of next year would be especially tough - he forecasts GDP will drop at an annualised rate of 15 percent, seasonally adjusted, as exports plunge.

"That will be mainly due to a collapse in U.S. sentiment," McNicholas said. "The U.S. plans a fiscal stimulus package early next year, but it's got to get that through Congress and to the people, so that may not be until the end of Q1 or the start of Q2."

The government pledged $1.5 billion last month to help firms secure credit and said it was prepared to run a bigger budget deficit to boost the economy.

Manufacturing accounts for about a quarter of the economy and factory output fell 12.7 percent in October from September, seasonally adjusted, and 12.6 percent from a year earlier, led by sliding electronics and drugs output.

Manufacturing is expected to be harder hit next year as the downturn in advanced economies accelerates and job losses in the sector will rise as a result, analysts say.

Rising unemployment will dent consumer spending, which is not being helped by a decline in tourism since August.

As the weak economy will encourage the authorities to keep monetary policy loose, the Singapore dollar is likely to remain sluggish, the poll forecast.

via : http://forums.vr-zone.com/showthread.php?t=364536

[Vorsprung durch Technik]

with more retrenchment in sight, perhaps what SM said to spend if can afford is not gonna click with the mass. people will start to save and tighten spending and in return local economy suffers.

just look out for retail shop closures