[Focus] Singapore Economy/Exports

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http://business.asiaone.com/Business/News/Story/A1Story20110217-263930.html

S'pore's economy projected to grow 4 to 6% this year

Thu, Feb 17, 2011
AsiaOne
       
 
The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) announced today growth forecast for 2011 will remain at 4 to 6 per cent.

It also said that the Singapore economy grew by 14.5 per cent in the whole of 2010, reversing the decline of 0.8 per cent in 2009.

This was driven largely by the manufacturing sector, said a statement from MTI.


Singapore's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 12.0 per cent on a year-on-year basis in the fourth quarter of 2010, an improvement from the growth of 10.5 per cent in the previous quarter.

On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter annualised basis, the economy grew by 3.9 per cent, an upturn from the contraction of 16.7 per cent in the preceding quarter.

Both the manufacturing and services producing industries grew, but the construction sector shrank last year. The services producing industries expanded by 8.8 per cent in the fourth quarter, following the growth of 10.2 per cent in the previous quarter. On a sequential basis, the sector posted an annualised growth of 5.6 per cent, up from 0.5 per cent in the preceding quarter.

The manufacturing sector expanded by 25.5 per cent on a year-on-year basis in the fourth quarter, growing by an annualised rate of 0.7 per cent. This was attributed to the biomedical manufacturing cluster, which saw a strong recovery in pharmaceutical output.

In contrast, the construction sector contracted by 2.0 per cent on a year-on-year basis in the fourth quarter, compared to the 6.7 per cent growth recorded in the preceding quarter. On a sequential basis, the sector contracted by 10.2 per cent (annualised), mainly due to the rescheduling of some institutional and civil engineering projects to 2011.

MTI said the growth outlook for this year 'remains positive', with a steady pace of growth in the advanced economies expected to lend support to Singapore’s manufacturing activities. Resilient intra-regional trade flows are expected to continue, while strong visitor arrivals will underpin growth in Singapore's tourism-related services sectors.

In addition, domestic factors such as capacity expansion in the electronics and biomedical manufacturing clusters will bolster growth in the manufacturing sector in 2011.

However, downside risks for 2011 includes sovereign debt concerns in the peripheral EU economies. Second, the inflationary concerns in Asia may prompt further monetary tightening. Domestically, the economy is also facing a tighter labour market.

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Singapore economy stalls as manufacturing slumps

SINGAPORE (AP) —  Singapore's economy stalled in the second quarter as manufacturing  slumped amid weaker global demand for the city-state's exports, the  government said Thursday.
Gross domestic product grew 0.5 percent  in the April to June period from a year earlier, the Trade and Industry  Ministry said in a statement. Industrial production slid 5.5 percent  while services expanded 3.3 percent, the ministry said.
Singapore  enjoyed record economic growth last year as the global economy recovered  and two new casino-resorts boosted tourist arrivals. GDP surged 14.5  percent in 2010, and the government in May said it expected growth of up  to 7 percent this year after a 9.3 percent expansion in the first  quarter.
But growth petered out last quarter as production of electronics and pharmaseuticals dropped, the ministry said.
The  economy contracted a seasonally adjusted, annualized 7.8 percent from  the previous quarter while manufacturing plunged 23 percent from the  January to March period.
"This largely reflected a decline in the  biomedical manufacturing cluster," the ministry said. "Output in the  electronics cluster also fell, partly due to an easing in global demand  for semiconductor chips."
The second quarter economic data is  preliminary and is compiled mostly from April and May statistics, said  the ministry, which is scheduled to release more complete figures next  month.


http://sg.news.yahoo.com/singapore-economy-stalls-manufacturing-slumps-001923265.html

via : http://vagsg.com/forums/showthread.php?t=53550&page=8

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http://www.todayonline.com/Business/EDC110818-0000283/Singapores-NODX-fell-2,8-per-cent-last-month

Singapore's NODX fell 2.8 per cent last month
by Ryan Huang
04:46 AM Aug 18, 2011
SINGAPORE - Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) fell 2.8 per cent last month from a year earlier, dragged down by lower electronics shipments, surprising economists who had widely expected a gain of about 4.6 per cent.

The slide was the largest since the 6.2-per-cent drop in October 2009, with general weakness was seen across all sectors.

Electronics shipments fell 16.9 per cent last month from a year earlier, the sixth consecutive month of decline since February, the trade promotion agency International Enterprise Singapore said yesterday.

Shipments to seven out of Singapore's top 10 markets posted a decline last month, with exports to the European Union, its largest export destination, down 11.4 per cent from a year earlier. Shipments to the United States fell 3.2 per cent on-year, but those to China grew 10.2 per cent.

Non-electronics shipments, which include petrochemicals and pharmaceuticals, increased 5.9 per cent. This was led by pharmaceutical exports, which jumped 48.5 per cent. But this was still not enough to lift the overall numbers.

Ms Selena Ling, head of treasury research at OCBC Bank, said: "We're currently going through a very weak patch of growth. Obviously we have a lot of economic and policy uncertainties, especially in the key countries such as the US and the euro zone. While we see some tentative signs of picking up in Japan after the March disaster, nevertheless I think the general demand conditions are faltering."

Yesterday's export data, and the recent figures from the Purchasing Managers' Index, which fell below 50 for the first time in 10 months last month, does not bode well for Singapore.

OCBC noted in a report that manufacturing will likely remain "handicapped" by external demand headwinds in the near-term, raising the probability of a technical recession in the third quarter.

Adding to the gloom is the challenge of a strengthening Singapore dollar.

Mr Irvin Seah, an economist at DBS, said: "Apart from diluting export competitiveness, the stronger currency has created a negative currency effect on the export numbers. Given that most global trade transactions are quoted in USD terms, the stronger Sing dollar essentially implies that local exporters are now getting less in SGD terms unless they have hedged their US dollar exposure."

The Singapore dollar has appreciated by about 12 per cent against the US dollar in the past year. WITH Agency reports

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S'pore manufacturing contracts for 2nd straight month in August
Posted: 05 September 2011 2140 hrs

SINGAPORE: Manufacturing activity in Singapore contracted for the second straight month in August due to a decline in new orders and inventory, as a softening global demand continued to drag on the economy.

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) posted a reading of 49.4 points, a marginal increase of 0.1 of a point from July, said the Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management (SIPMM) on Monday.

A PMI reading above 50 indicates an expansion in manufacturing activity, while a reading below that indicates a contraction.

Manufacturing activity in Singapore had expanded for nine consecutive months before July's contraction.

The institute attributed August's contraction largely to a drop in new orders, new export orders and production output.

While inventory and imports continued to decline, stockholdings of finished goods and employment though contracting, posted higher readings in August.

The electronics sector saw a further contraction in August, with a reading of 48 points, which was a drop of 1.5 points over the previous month.

Executive director of SIPMM, Janice Ong, said that the weak PMI indicates a decline in new orders from domestic and overseas markets.

Commenting in a statement, she said: "Uncertainties in the US and Europe debt situation and the slowing growth in China and Japan have continued to dampen investment sentiments for our local manufacturers."

- CNA/al

via : http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/1151230/1/.html

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Singapore’s economic growth probably nearly stalled last quarter as a faltering global recovery hurt exports, putting pressure on the central bank to join nations from Indonesia to Pakistan in easing monetary policy.

Gross domestic product probably rose an annualized 0.8 percent last quarter from the previous three months, when it fell 6.5 percent, according to the median of 16 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The Monetary Authority of Singapore, which uses the island’s dollar as its main tool to manage inflation, may slow or end currency appreciation, a separate survey showed. Both reports will be released at 8 a.m. tomorrow.

Source:bloomberg

via : http://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/showthread.php?t=3438635

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SINGAPORE: Singapore's economy grew by 5.9 percent on a year-on-year basis in the third quarter of 2011.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy grew by 1.3 percent, a reversal from a contraction of 6.3 percent in the previous quarter.

Releasing the advance GDP estimates for the third quarter on Friday, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said that the Singapore economy is expected to grow by around 5.0 percent in 2011.

Commenting on sectoral performances, MTI said the improved economic performance in the third quarter was mainly due to a pick-up in growth in the biomedical manufacturing cluster.

It said the manufacturing sector expanded by 13.2 per cent in the third quarter on a year-on-year basis, after contracting by 5.8 per cent in the preceding quarter.

The construction sector grew marginally by 0.4 per cent on a year-on-year basis in the third quarter, following the growth of 1.5 per cent in the preceding quarter. On a sequential basis, the construction sector contracted by 11.5 per cent, following two consecutive quarters of expansion. This was largely due to a decline in private sector building activities.

Services-producing industries grew by 3.6 per cent on a year-on-year basis, compared to the 4.0 per cent growth in the preceding quarter. Lower levels of activity were seen in the transport and storage, and financial services sectors.

MTI cautioned that growth could be weighed down by the softening global economic conditions for the rest of 2011.

It cited the electronics cluster as one area which is expected to remain weak due to the easing of global electronics demand.

MTI added that sentiment-sensitive activities within the financial services sector could also be dampened by heightened economic and financial uncertainties.

On a brighter note, MTI said the biomedical manufacturing cluster could provide some support to growth as pharmaceutical output is expected to be higher in the near term compared to a year ago.

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SINGAPORE'S economy has stalled due to the downturn in the global IT industry and weakness in some areas of the financial sector, and a recovery is not expected until the second half of next year, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said yesterday.

"The outlook for the Singapore economy over the next 15 months can be divided into two phases: stalled growth over the next few quarters, followed by a modest recovery, probably sometime in the latter half of 2012," MAS said in its half-yearly Macroeconomic Review.

"Given Singapore's heavy exposure to global production, trade and financial flows, the economy will not be able to avoid the knock-on effects of the deteriorating external environment and the softening global IT cycle," it added.

 
MAS said Singapore's gross domestic product (GDP) growth next year could slow to below its potential rate of 3-5 per cent, repeating comments made two weeks ago.

Singapore said earlier this month its GDP grew by just 1.3 per cent in the third quarter on an annualised and seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, narrowly escaping a technical recession due to a surge in pharmaceutical production.

The tepid growth followed a quarter-on-quarter contraction of 6.3 per cent during the April-June period on an annualised and seasonally adjusted basis.

MAS, which issued its monetary-policy statement on the same day as the advance third- quarter GDP data, eased policy slightly by saying it will let the local dollar appreciate at a slower pace.

MAS releases its macroeconomic review about two weeks after the half-yearly policy statement, to give economists and traders a better understanding of the thinking behind monetary policy.

In the review, MAS reiterated its forecast that inflation will ease next year and that the rise in headline consumer price index (CPI) will be around 5 per cent for the whole of this year.

It said year-on-year CPI inflation will average "above 5 per cent" in the second half of this year and "close to 4 per cent" in the first six months of next year, before easing to around 2 per cent in the second half of next year.

MAS also said the Government's fiscal policy is expected to be "mildly contractionary" this year as higher tax revenue and fees weaken aggregate demand in the economy by an initial 1.5 per cent of GDP.

It added that tourism has been the "star performer" in the past six months, with July and August visitor arrivals exceeding record levels. Hotel occupancy hovered around 86 per cent in July and August, below the 88 per cent level in April to June, but average room rates continued to rise.

Singapore's trade is three times its GDP. It is the most open economy in Asia alongside Taiwan, and both typically feel the effects of headwinds in the global economy in the same quarter or subsequent quarter, according to Barclays Capital.

The problems in Europe and North America are also being felt elsewhere in Asia, with South Korea reporting earlier yesterday that its economy slowed for a second consecutive quarter.

Hong Kong said earlier this week that exports fell 3 per cent this month, the first year-on-year contraction in almost two years.

via : http://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/showthread.php?t=3458722

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Singapore PM: Economy Is Visibly Slowing Down

Singapore's economy is visibly slowing down and will continue to do so into the first half of 2012, as global economic conditions get tough, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said Wednesday.

"We are now in a period where incomes will be under pressure at the low-end. I think even in the middle, white-collar workers will also be coming under pressure," Lee told CNBC.

On a quarter-on-quarter annualized basis, Singapore's economy grew 1.3 percent over July-September, after contracting 6.3 percent in the previous quarter, according Ministry of Trade and Industry.

Annual growth is expected to slow to around 5 percent in 2011, after a record 14.5 percent rise in 2010, the Monetary Authority of Singapore said late October.

"There will be uncertainties because the (economic) cycles are shorter, things go up, things go down," PM Lee said.

For the economy to continue to grow at a strong pace, Lee said Singapore needs "more workers, more skills, more talent."

Foreigners account for nearly one-third of the country's 5.18 million population, according to the Department of Statistics' latest data.

"The more you tighten the inflow, the slower growth is going to be and that's something Singaporeans will have to understand," he added.

via : http://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/showthread.php?t=3478041

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Singapore Q4 economy contracts 4.9 percent

By ALEX KENNEDY | AP – 19 minutes ago

SINGAPORE (AP) — Singapore's economy contracted in the fourth quarter as manufacturing plunged amid a slowdown in global trade, the government said Tuesday.
Gross domestic product shrank 4.9 percent in the October to December period from the previous quarter, the second contraction in three quarters, the Trade and Industry Ministry said in a statement.
Manufacturing, led by electronics and pharmaceuticals, slumped 22 percent from the previous quarter while construction fell 6.7 percent, the ministry said.
...

The government began allowing fewer foreigners to work in Singapore last year, a policy that will hurt economic growth, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said Saturday. A backlash against a surge in foreign workers in recent years helped cut the overall vote total of the ruling People's Action Party in parliamentary elections in May to its lowest since independence in 1965.
"Companies are already feeling the pinch," Lee said. "Admitting fewer foreign workers also means forgoing business opportunities and accepting slower growth. This is one reason why we only expect 1 to 3 percent growth next year."

via : http://sg.news.yahoo.com/singapore-q4-economy-contracts-4-9-percent-003453361.html

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article on the broken Singapore economy.

Oops, The Economy Broke: Reasons for Singapore

Did you have breakfast this morning? I sure as hell didn’t. Or rather I did, but then I read the news and upchucked four hot cakes from sheer shock. The consumer price index was at 5.2% in March, and may hit 6%. Our inflation’s growing faster than my waistline, and I’m Singapore’s most popular model…for the “Before” pictures in weight loss ads. But what’s causing our economy to bloat like Steven Segal after 40? Read on and find out:
 
 
How Bad Is Our Inflation?
The consumer price index (CPI) checks the price difference of a market basket of goods over time. So a CPI of 5.2% suggests, in a very simplified way, that most of what you buy will cost 5.2% more.
Unless you’ve gotten a matching raise in your pay, it means you now have less money. And apart from everything costing more, the inflation eats into your bank savings. Your bank’s interest rate (even for fixed and structured deposits) are nowhere near the 5.2% inflation. So if you have a savings deposit, you may as well lock your money in a room with a lighter and an arsonist.
 
 
The CPF may also lose its efficacy as a retirement fund. The CPF interest rate is 2.5%, and the inflation rate is 5.2%. As a retirement provision, that’s about as effective as a paper umbrella in a tsunami. But of course, the government will take action to rectify this soon.
Right?
Hello, government? Is anyone awake in there? Because we need to fix the reasons. Like the…
 
1. Insane COE Prices
As of April 18, COEs for larger cars hit $91,000. Reuters pointed out that a Toyota Vios, which cost $77,000 at the start of the year, now costs $107,000 (including COE). That same amount could land you a Porsche in some parts of Europe (and a complimentary AK-47 in Russia, because YOU try owning a Porsche in St. Petersburg).
Come August, the government also intends to drop the vehicle quota to 0.5%. This will raise COE premiums even higher; presumably, it’ll match the admissions rate of hysterically giggling car buyers at IMH. Because the bad news is, there will always be situations when a car is necessary; no matter the price. Certain lines of work, along with family requirements, will continue to pressure people into buying cars.
And because the COE is an unavoidable, artificial addition to price (increasing price without adding real value), it’s a major contributor to inflation.
 
 
2. Overheated Property Market
Nice try with the new measures, HDB. Sadly, chucking an ice cube at Fukushima would have been a stronger cooling measure.
The ABSD has dissuaded foreign buyers, but it’s channelled demand into the rental market. Foreigners are now pushing rental income to new heights, and that’s led to property speculation (shoebox flats anyone?) Likewise, the cash over valuation (COV) of resale flats is now less realistic than Transformers 2.
 
 
And have you seen Sky Habitat?  The property developers forgot to include a disclaimer. Something like:
“Please note that your purchase signifies market collapse, uncontrolled inflation, impaired judgement, or all of the above”.
There has also been news of HDB flats reaching the $900,000 mark, and even heartland homes aren’t the low-cost bulwarks they used to be. Until some control is placed on COV, and further cooling measures kick in, housing’s going to keep raising our cost of living.
 
3. Higher Transport Costs
Government policies have made cars unaffordable, while raising public transport costs. It’s like the person-in-charge Googled: “Inflation and How to Cause It”, and started taking notes.
SBS is already intending to pay bus drivers 16% more, which should raise transport fares. Part of the reason is to, you know, cope with inflation. Then there was Comfort and it’s minions other cab companies; they raised fares as well. To cope with inflation.
 
 
Now, take a step back and reread those reasons. Do you see a problem here?
Transport companies are coping with inflation by…contributing to said inflation. That’s like trying to solve groin pain by having doctors take turns kicking you in the nuts.
But hey, at least higher transport costs have had benefits. Like making the MRT more reliable, or making bus captains more polite. And I’m totally not being sarcastic there.
 
4. Rising Food Prices
Singapore imports a lot of food. Look at our land space; if we planted one shoot of kang kong it would die of claustrophobia. But in particular, the global recession and rising cost of fuel (which affects the import cost of foodstuffs) take a lot of blame.
Where local policies contribute is property. As rent rises, so too do food prices. Supermarkets need to charge more to maintain inventory, and hawkers need to pay their stall rent. The practice of subletting hawker stalls is especially problematic: That’s when a stall holder pays maybe $700 a month for the stall, but charges someone $2000 a month to operate it. Wave at Holland Village, people.
 
 
As it is, restaurants need as much reason to raise prices as North Korea needs to launch a missile. But the rental market is heating up, and landlords are basically sharks with legs. As surrounding rents go up, they’ll try to match it, which prompts F&B tenants to skyrocket prices.
 
5. Absurd Optimism
Inflation seems to be getting worse because of our laid back attitude. We’re taking little action because we can’t seem to acknowledge how bad it is. Here’s a quote from Channel NewsAsia:
“However, analysts said Singapore’s inflation rate is not a cause for alarm as the government had already warned that price gains would be steeper in the first half of this year.”
By contrast, that’s like saying you don’t have to be alarmed that your car is going off a bridge, so long as the screaming passengers in the back “already warned” you. Early warning doesn’t mean we shouldn’t freak out.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will probably allow the Singapore dollar to appreciate, as a way to combat inflation. This is effective as a stopgap measure, but it doesn’t address deeper flaws in the system.
 
 
Another problem is MAS’ method of measuring core inflation: It excludes housing and private transport. Since these are are a major cause of inflation, the method results in optimistic numbers and homeless Singaporeans. It’s like getting lung cancer, but having the doctor congratulate you because hey, apart from your lungs, you’re fine.
MAS is expected to take corrective action in October. But the immediate solution seems to be crossing our fingers really hard. Let’s all sit back and think happy thoughts, and pretend inaction isn’t part of the problem.

some charts.

via : http://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/eat-drink-man-woman-16/%5Bnews%5D-broken-sg-economy-3703698.html