US Dollar n USA

[Cobra]

never a better time to buy those upgrades you've always wanted from the US..


======================================================
Agence France-Presse - 11/20/2007 11:48 PM

Ailing dollar falls to historic low against euro

The ailing US dollar tumbled to a historic low against the euro Tuesday as concerns mounted about US economic growth after the Federal Reserve trimmed back its growth projections, traders said.

Fears of slower economic growth, largely driven by a lingering housing slump and a related credit squeeze, have weighed heavily on the dollar in recent weeks.

Fears that overseas investors and countries, especially China which holds over a trillion dollars in foreign exchange reserves, could sell or convert their dollar holdings have also depressed the dollar.

The euro, which has rocketed in value against the dollar this year, soared as high as 1.4853 dollar. It was at 1.4836 dollars at 2200 GMT, compared with 1.4665 dollars late Monday.

The euro hits its highest level against the dollar since the single currency's creation in 1999.

"When concerns over the economy grow, you turn to stable currencies -- for example the dollar, but ultimately the dollar is going down so now you would buy the euro," said Neil Mellor, a currency strategist at Bank of New York.

Falling interest rates have also depressed the dollar, the Fed cut borrowing costs in September and October in a bid to underpin economic momentum, as investors generally prefer to invest in countries where rates are rising or higher.

The central bank slashed its outlook for 2008 US economic growth Tuesday, citing weakness in housing and tighter credit conditions, and suggested policymakers are unsure about future interest rate cuts.

The central bank projected growth next year in a range of 1.8 to 2.5 percent down from a prior forecast of 2.5 to 2.75 percent.

"The US dollar posted its largest single-day loss in over a year, as speculation for future US Federal Reserve interest rate cut doomed the greenback to further drops," said David Rodriguez, a currency analyst at Forex Capital Markets.

"Continued speculation that key oil producing countries may drop the dollar as their primary reserve currency has clearly hurt the dollar, while increasingly pessimistic forecasts for US economic growth and interest rates has likewise hurt confidence in the dollar," Rodriguez said.

The dollar's demise was hotly debated at an OPEC meeting this past weekend in Saudia Arabia as the oil producing cartel currently prices oil in dollars.

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has said US growth is likely to cool in future months and economists say the housing downturn is unlikely to improve any time soon.

A government report showed a rebound in new home construction for October, but analysts said it home building will likely decline in future months, particularly as demand for building permits dropped last month.

The pound was quoted at 2.0669 dollars compared with 2.0497 late Monday.

In late US trade, the dollar stood at 1.1058 Swiss francs from 1.1149. The dollar edged up to 109.88 yen, against 109.74 yen a day earlier.

[Vorsprung durch Technik]

everything will get expensive since dollars getting lesser power... best to go euro or pounds

[zuoom]

incidentally, hear on the radio this morning about new European based hedge funds launching.

sounds good for long term equity.

hear something about it's only restricted to HNW clients with more than $2M though. reckon it's a good hedge.

[zuoom]

US news via : http://forums.sgfunds.com/viewtopic.php?p=193188#193188

Citi, Merrill, JPMorgan face larger writeoffs
Thu Dec 27, 2007 5:48pm EST
By Jonathan Stempel

http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=USN2738809220071227

Merrill seeks more funds to avoid crisis
$4.4bn from Singapore's Temasek not enough

* James Doran in New York and Richard Wachman
* The Observer,
* Sunday December 30 2007

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2007/dec/30/merrilllynch.subprimecrisis/print 

Could It Be the Year of the Rising Dollar?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/06/business/yourmoney/06fore.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

The dollar’s sharp drop over the last two years has been a huge boon for Americans who bought foreign stocks.

Philly Fed's Plosser sees potential stagflation threat to US economy

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=e37c55cc-9164-42cb-b2e3-ac63e4c69964

UBS issues plea for shareholder to back cash injection
Friday, January 11, 2008

http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080111.wubs0111/GIStory/

Central Banks Dance in Denial on Stagflation
Commentary by Michael R. Sesit

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_sesit&sid=aDp8nnhLXdpg

the news come fast n furious...

question: has it started already?

[zuoom]

FEAR gripped financial markets yesterday as Asia and Europe absorbed a double whammy of devastating news.

The near collapse of Wall Street financial giant Bear Stearns stunned investors along with the unveiling of emergency measures by the US Federal Reserve not seen since the Great Depression.

Global stocks and the already weakened US dollar went into a tailspin as investors ran for cover to buy commodities such as gold and oil, which set new record prices.

Shares in India, Hong Kong and Japan were hit hardest. In Singapore, the benchmark Straits Times Index suffered an initial 93-point plunge before recovering to close at 2,792.75, down 46 points from last Friday.

Selling continued when the US and European markets reopened yesterday, with London's Footsie closing 3.9 per cent lower. In New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average swung between gains and losses. At 1am Singapore time after 31/2 hours of trading, the Dow stood at 11,862.11, down 88.98 points or 0.7 per cent.

Market watchers said the plunge could have been worse if not for expectations the Fed will slash a key interest rate this week by a massive 1 percentage point to 2 per cent.

Investors were spooked by the fire sale of Bear Stearns, the No.5 US investment bank, which is being bought by rival JPMorgan Chase & Co for US$236 million (S$326 million), a mere fraction of its stock market value last Friday of US$3.5 billion.

The shockingly low-priced deal for a highly respected institution sparked fresh rumours that more Wall Street big names such as Lehman Brothers might be on the guillotine next.

Frantic weekend talks in New York and Washington yielded a broad range of measures to keep cash-strapped Wall Street companies afloat.

These came as recent attempts to calm turmoil arising from a global credit crunch have failed to pacify investors and lenders, threatening to send the US and the world economy into a deep slump.

Among the latest drastic measures, the Fed will provide emergency funds to a wider array of financial institutions, acting as a 'lender of last resort' to major investment banks that are classified as primary dealers.

This is the first time since the 1930s the Fed has extended lending beyond regulated deposit-taking banks to securities firms, Reuters reported.

The Fed also cut the interest rate for such loans to 3.25 per cent, from 3.5 per cent.

The central bank was instrumental in the Bear Stearns deal, giving JPMorgan a US$30 billion guarantee for the troubled bank's most illiquid assets.

The Fed pushed for the rescue deal as a total collapse of Bear Stearns, with its intricate links to other Wall Street companies, would have sparked a severe crisis of confidence in the financial system.

The bank, one of the most aggressive players in the US sub-prime mortgage business, found itself on the brink of bankruptcy late last week when trading partners pulled assets and credit lines from it.

At the White House, President George Bush yesterday sought to reassure investors, saying he was prepared to act 'decisively' if needed.

The Fed moves helped to calm investors a little.

Mr Tim Condon, Asia research head at ING Bank, told Bloomberg News: 'The Fed's moves over the weekend certainly aren't enough, and it hasn't prevented panic selling today in Asia. But if the Fed didn't do anything, there would have been a bloodbath in the markets.'

Link:- http://news.asiaone.com/News/The%2BStraits%2BTimes/Story/A1Story20080318-54942.html

read via : http://forums.vr-zone.com/showthread.php?t=250596

================

was it a kind of dark monday? recall the STi went under 2.8K mark.

[zuoom]

US federal regulators seize control of IndyMac Bank
Posted: 12 July 2008 1013 hrs

LOS ANGELES: Federal regulators said they had taken control of the troubled California-based IndyMac Bank on Friday in one of the biggest bank closures in US history.

The regulatory Office of Thrift Supervision said it had placed the Pasadena-headquartered bank, worth an estimated 32 billion dollars, under the control of the Federal Deposit Insurance Group.

The bank will re-open next Monday as the IndyMac Federal Bank, the Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS) said in a statement.

OTS regulators said the closure was prompted by withdrawals of 1.3 billion dollars made by the bank's customers since June, when doubts were raised publicly about the institution's long-term viability.

"The institution failed today due to a liquidity crisis," OTS director John Reich said Friday.

The decision had been anticipated after IndyMac's share price collapsed. The company announced this week it had halting lending and was planning to shed 3,800 jobs, more than half of its work force.

At its peak in 2006, the company, which had been reeling under the foreclosure crisis, employed 10,000 people. The latest lay-offs would have reduced the work force to around 3,400.

IndyMac bank had been sent into freefall after comments by Democratic Senator Charles Schumer last month concerning the bank's health prompted a flood of customer withdrawals.

"The OTS has determined that the current institution, IndyMac Bank, is unlikely to be able to meet continued depositors' demands in the normal course of business and is therefore in an unsafe and unsound condition," the OTS said in a statement.

Reports said IndyMac's collapse was the second biggest in US history behind the 1984 failure of the 40-billion-dollar Continental Illinois Bank.

via : http://www.mycarforum.com/forum/US_Bank_Collapsed_............._P2454167/#2454167

[zuoom]

what does this mean?

via : http://digg.com/business_finance/This_is_how_fucked_we_are_PIC

[zuoom]

will be posting more US based matters in this thread.

[tags] NBER.

-------------
    
US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions
http://www.celicasg.org/index.php?topic=5266.0

National Bureau of Economic Research aka NBER.
http://www.nber.org/cycles/

[zuoom]

DECEMBER 29, 2008
As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of
U.S.
In Moscow, Igor Panarin's Forecasts Are All the Rage; America
'Disintegrates' in 2010

By ANDREW OSBORN

MOSCOW -- For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been
predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he
admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse
will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very
seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media.

Igor Panarin

In recent weeks, he's been interviewed as much as twice a day about
his predictions. "It's a record," says Prof. Panarin. "But I think the
attention is going to grow even stronger."

Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB
analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for
future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures
students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on
U.S.-Russia relations.

But it's his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of
the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for
everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial
crisis. Mr. Panarin's views also fit neatly with the Kremlin's
narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world
stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the
country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into
separate territories.

A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does
not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.

"There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he
says. "One could rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced. "But
if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario -- for
Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage,
he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily
on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.

Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline,
and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the
collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he
says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to
Russian control.

In addition to increasing coverage in state media, which are tightly
controlled by the Kremlin, Mr. Panarin's ideas are now being widely
discussed among local experts. He presented his theory at a recent
roundtable discussion at the Foreign Ministry. The country's top
international relations school has hosted him as a keynote speaker.
During an appearance on the state TV channel Rossiya, the station cut
between his comments and TV footage of lines at soup kitchens and
crowds of homeless people in the U.S. The professor has also been
featured on the Kremlin's English-language propaganda channel, Russia
Today.

Mr. Panarin's apocalyptic vision "reflects a very pronounced degree of
anti-Americanism in Russia today," says Vladimir Pozner, a prominent
TV journalist in Russia. "It's much stronger than it was in the Soviet
Union."

Mr. Pozner and other Russian commentators and experts on the U.S.
dismiss Mr. Panarin's predictions. "Crazy ideas are not usually
discussed by serious people," says Sergei Rogov, director of the
government-run Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, who thinks Mr.
Panarin's theories don't hold water.

Mr. Panarin's résumé includes many years in the Soviet KGB, an
experience shared by other top Russian officials. His office, in
downtown Moscow, shows his national pride, with pennants on the wall
bearing the emblem of the FSB, the KGB's successor agency. It is also
full of statuettes of eagles; a double-headed eagle was the symbol of
czarist Russia.

The professor says he began his career in the KGB in 1976. In post-
Soviet Russia, he got a doctorate in political science, studied U.S.
economics, and worked for FAPSI, then the Russian equivalent of the
U.S. National Security Agency. He says he did strategy forecasts for
then-President Boris Yeltsin, adding that the details are
"classified."

In September 1998, he attended a conference in Linz, Austria, devoted
to information warfare, the use of data to get an edge over a rival.
It was there, in front of 400 fellow delegates, that he first
presented his theory about the collapse of the U.S. in 2010.

"When I pushed the button on my computer and the map of the United
States disintegrated, hundreds of people cried out in surprise," he
remembers. He says most in the audience were skeptical. "They didn't
believe me."

At the end of the presentation, he says many delegates asked him to
autograph copies of the map showing a dismembered U.S.

He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI
analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and
demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the
U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will
withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from
the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow.
The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will
move in.

California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian
Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas
will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that
will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C.,
and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the
European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof.
Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he
suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be
subsumed into Russia.

"It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part
of the Russian Empire for a long time." A framed satellite image of
the Bering Strait that separates Alaska from Russia like a thread
hangs from his office wall. "It's not there for no reason," he says
with a sly grin.

Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an
article in Izvestia, one of Russia's biggest national dailies. In it,
he reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt "a pyramid scheme,"
and predicted China and Russia would usurp Washington's role as a
global financial regulator.

Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama "can work miracles," he
wrote. "But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no
miracles."

The article prompted a question about the White House's reaction to
Prof. Panarin's forecast at a December news conference. "I'll have to
decline to comment," spokeswoman Dana Perino said amid much laughter.

For Prof. Panarin, Ms. Perino's response was significant. "The way the
answer was phrased was an indication that my views are being listened
to very carefully," he says.

The professor says he's convinced that people are taking his theory
more seriously. People like him have forecast similar cataclysms
before, he says, and been right. He cites French political scientist
Emmanuel Todd. Mr. Todd is famous for having rightly forecast the
demise of the Soviet Union -- 15 years beforehand. "When he forecast
the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him," says
Prof. Panarin.

via : http://forums.delphiforums.com/sunkopitiam/messages?msg=18165.1

While Russia Crumbles, Professor Diverts Attention to the United States' "Impending" Split


   
Submitted by Julie on December 29, 2008 - 2:48pm.
Russian Professor Predicts the US Will Collapse & Split Into Six Parts in 2010

While the Russian economy continues to tumble, Igor Panarin, a Russian professor, is being pushed out into the limelight of Putin's state media to make bold predictions of a United States collapse in 2010.

So what's the professor got to say? He believes that when times get tough, rich states like California and New York will withhold funds from the federal government, which would lead to collapse and civil war. The U.S. would thus dissolve into six distinct parts:

   1. Atlantic America: Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Vermont, New York, West Virginia, Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, the District of Columbia, and Tennesee. He says they might even join the European Union.
   2. The Central-North American Republic: Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Wyoming, and Montana. He says this area would be a part of Canada or under Canadian influence.
   3. The Californian Republic: California, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona. He says this will be part of China or under Chinese influence.
   4. The Texas Republic: Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida. He says this will be part of Mexico or under Mexican influence.
   5. Alaska: According to Panarin, Alaska would go back to Russia.
   6. Hawaii: According to Panarin, Hawaii would fall under Japanese or Chinese control.

Now, Panarin didn't just come up with this theory overnight. Instead, he's been predicting the U.S.'s collapse in 2010 for about a decade now. No one has taken him very seriously, but now he's finally found a captive audience: Russian state media. Nothing works better than a little propaganda to distract and convince the masses that while your country is falling to shambles, your old rival has got it worse.

Panarin, 50, isn't a crackpot figure that gets little attention. Rather, he's a former KGB analyst and currently is the dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He lectures students, publishes books, gets invitations to Kremlin receptions, and shows up in the Russian media as an expert on US-Russian relations.

In recent years, Russia has blamed the U.S. for everything from the global financial crisis to instability in the Middle East. Panarin's views fit perfectly with the Kremlin's idea that Russia is returning to its pre 1990's prominence and a major player on the world stage.

Panarin insists that he doesn't dislike Americans, but warns that the outlook is dire:

"There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur. One could rejoice in that process, but if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario -- for Russia."

He continues stating that Russia would become more powerful on the world stage, but that its economy would suffer because Russia currently depends heavily on trade with the US and the dollar.

Panarin predicts that economic decline, moral degradation, and mass immigration will trigger a civil war next fall, as well as the collapse of the dollar. In late June or early July 2010, he says that the US will break into the six pieces mentioned above.

Panarin also warns that Americans hope that President-elect Barack Obama "can work miracles, but when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles."

--------------

of course, he was right before... but it does not mean he will be right again now.
he's not the dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for nothing.
so, his words would be worth noting.

however do note that he's a Russian.... from his view-point, it makes sense to cause chaos to the US. (as something from the FSB/KGB it's always motherland before self, before the rest.)

misinformation, disinformation, they are the masters of that.

what you see, read, hear might not be what you think it is.
what you dun know, might scare you more.

keke, enough of the crap talk. 

good luck,
z.

[zuoom]

As if we needed any more evidence our economy is out of control

J. Michael Sharman
Published: January 6, 2009

How bad is it?
Well, locally, home foreclosures increased 365% in 2008.1 Local property values decreased by 37 percent since 2006. 2 Nationally, home-prices fell 23.4% since their mid-2006 peak. 3

Between the real estate balloon popping and the stock market crashing, U.S. households lost $10 trillion in equity in 2008. 4

Personal bankruptcies rose nearly 34 percent in October. 5 You don’t go bankrupt if you have a nest egg to get you through the tough times, but beginning in 2005, our personal savings rate went into negative territory for the first time since the Great Depression. 6

Because homeowners are hurting, retailers are bleeding buckets of red ink. This is the first time that Christmas sales figures actually decreased since 1969 when holiday sales records began being tracked. 7

It is estimated that lack of sales forced 200,000 stores out of business in the week between Christmas and New Years 8, and that 79,000 more will close in the first half of 2009. 9

One of the two biggest mall owners, General Growth, began 2008 with its shares being traded at $38.73 per share. As of December 29, 2008, they had fallen to $1.21. You can expect that pretty soon shopping mall owners will start going into foreclosure and bankruptcy. 10

The consumer confidence index sank to its lowest reading since those records began in 1967, 11 and the number of new manufacturing orders fell to their lowest level since that index was created in 1948. 12

On Christmas Eve, the Labor Department announced that filings for jobless benefits jumped to 586,000—the highest figure since the end of the Carter era 13—but it’s hard for some folks to even go look for work because more than 1.6 million vehicles were repossessed in 2008. 14
We did not need more regulation of the various financial industries to protect us from these disasters—a free market working with the standard checks and balances would have done that—but for it to truly have been a free market we absolutely needed more prosecution of the criminal fraud which occurred from Main Street to Wall Street.

Here’s how bad we look to the rest of the world:

The Wall Street Journal reports that Prof. Igor Panarin, a former KGB analyst and current dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s academy for future diplomats, is being interviewed twice a day about his prediction that “mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation” will trigger an American civil war in the fall of 2009. Then in June or July of 2010, he says, the United States will split into six separate pieces.

And the bad part is, he’s being taken seriously. 15

Mr. Obama’s proposed response is another bailout/economic stimulus plan with a very big price tag. The New York Times says it would be “at least $775 billion”. 16 Bloomberg cites “Obama advisers” as saying the new bailout would exceed $850 billion. 17

The crisis our nation is encountering is not because we have too little money to work with, it is because we have lost sight of what it means to work as Americans in a free country, and we have distorted free competition by overly politicizing our economic policies.

We need to have the government stimulate innovation, not subsidize mediocrity and corruption.

We need to be a production-based economy, not a consumption-based one.

We should be creating new industries which in turn will create new jobs. Instead, we persist in maintaining old industries doing things the old ways.

We need to be a savings nation, and not have our continuing bailouts increase our national and personal debts.

Ultimately, what we really need to do is to simply remember the last four lines of Samuel Francis Smith’s song, “America, My Country ‘Tis of Thee”:

Long may our land be bright
With freedom’s holy light;
Protect us by Thy might,
Great God, our King!

1 “Table: Foreclosures Way Up Across Region”, Culpeper Star-Exponent, p. A1, January 4, 2009
2 “Tp Ten Stories of 2008” Culpeper Star-Exponent, http://www.starexponent.com/cse/news/local/article/culpepers_top_10_stories_of_2008/26836/
3 Case-Shiller Index Shows Sharpest Home-Price Declines in Sun Belt DECEMBER 30, 2008, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123064533193442343.html?mod=special_page_campaign2008_mostpop
4 “Damage Report 2008: Household Wealth Down $10 Trillion”, December 12, 2008 http://www.usnews.com/blogs/the-ticker/2008/12/12/damage-report-2008-household-wealth-down-10-trillion.html
5 Rodricks, Dan “We should have seen the boom couldn’t last”
http://www.baltimoresun.com/services/newspaper/printedition/sunday/ideas/bal-id.rodricks07dec07,0,2518011.column
6 Rodricks, Dan “We should have seen the boom couldn’t last”
http://www.baltimoresun.com/services/newspaper/printedition/sunday/ideas/bal-id.rodricks07dec07,0,2518011.column
7 “US holiday weakest since 1970, more retail cuts seen” Reuters, December 30 2008 http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8170848
8 Experts Predict 200,000 Stores To Close By 2009
Dec 30, 2008 http://cbs2chicago.com/local/experts.predict.2009.2.897060.html
9 Rent-to-own News - Retail: “73,000 stores could close in first half of 2009” December 30, 2008 http://www.rtohq.org/01922apro-retail-outlook-grim-73000-stores-could-close-in-first-half-of-2009.html
10 MAYEROWITZ, SCOTT “Foreclosure at the Mall: The Recession’s Latest Victim Might Just Be That Shopping Center Down the Road” ABC NEWS Business Unit, Dec. 30, 2008
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/Economy/story?id=6544358&page=1
11 “U.S. Economy: Confidence Sinks to Record Low on Jobs” Dec. 30, 2008 (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=anyyqSyZTU28&refer=home
12 “Manufacturing Index Drops to 28-year Low: New Orders at Lowest Level Since Records Began in 1948”, Culpeper Star-Exponent, p. A6, January 3, 2009
13 Herbst, Moira “Benefits for jobless workers vary widely across the U. S.”,
http://www.wtol.com/Global/Story.asp?S=9589282
14 Hennigan, W.J. “Auto defaults keeping repo men busy”
East Valley Tribune
Tucson, Arizona | Published: 12.08.2008
http://www.azstarnet.com/allheadlines/270474
15 Osborn, Andrew “As if Things Weren’t Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.: In Moscow, Igor Panarin’s Forecasts Are All the Rage; America ‘Disintegrates’ in 2010”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html DECEMBER 29, 2008
16 Calmes, Jackie and Hulse, Carl “Obama Considers Major Expansion in Aid to Jobless” New York Times, January 3, 2009 http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/04/us/politics/04stimulus.html?ref=business
17 “Obama Says U.S. Must Act Swiftly to Address Economy (Update1)” Bloomberg.com, January 3, 2009 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aeL

via the same source as above.

[zuoom]

JPMorgan chief says 2009 will be bleak
By Francesco Guerrera in New York

Published: January 14 2009 18:48 | Last updated: January 14 2009 21:30

The US financial and economic crisis will worsen this year as hard-hit consumers default on credit cards and other loans, Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, has predicted in an interview with the Financial Times.

Mr Dimon, whose bank will report fourth-quarter results on Thursday, gave his bleak assessment as shares on both sides of the Atlantic tumbled on rising fears that banks would need more capital and a larger-than-expected fall in US retail sales.

JPMorgan profit falls 76%

By Alan Rappeport in New York

Published: January 15 2009 12:18 | Last updated: January 15 2009 14:45

JP Morgan Chase on Thursday reported fourth quarter profits of $702m, or 7 cents a share, beating analysts’ expectations that it would break even or suffer a slight loss.

Profits at the second-largest US bank were down 76 per cent from $2.97bn a year ago although JP Morgan has handled the economic turbulence better than most of its competitors\..

“JPMorgan Chase’s management team is working diligently to manage through this very difficult business climate, and to position the franchise to benefit when the economy eventually recovers,” Mr Dimon said.

Mr Dimon told the Financial Times on Wednesday that the worst of the economic situation was not over and that things would continue to deteriorate in 2009. He added on Thursday that if the economy did not recover quickly, it would be reasonable to expect “additional negative impact on our market-related businesses, continued higher loan losses and increases to our credit reserves.”

JP Morgan decided to make its earnings announcement a week earlier than planned and was the first big US bank to report in what is expected to be a difficult quarter for financials.

Even in the over-the-top Dubai

FOXNews.com - Economic Woes in Dubai Halt Work on World's Tallest Skyscraper - International News | News of the World | Middle East News | Europe News

Economic Woes in Dubai Halt Work on World's Tallest Skyscraper

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates  —  The developer of a skyscraper planned to be the world's tallest said Wednesday it is halting work on the project for a year as the Middle East's business and entertainment capital grapples with the financial crisis.

State-owned builder Nakheel's decision to shelve the landmark development — which it unveiled only in October — came as a leading credit rating firm warned that falling real estate prices will likely hurt banks in Dubai and elsewhere in the United Arab Emirates.

Home values in the emirate tumbled 8 percent in the last three months from the previous quarter, a report Tuesday said, marking what analysts say is the first such decline in years.

Bank shares plunge on Wall Street

By Alistair Gray in New York

Published: January 15 2009 14:22 | Last updated: January 15 2009 15:47

The financial sector led another retreat on Wall Street on Thursday as fears over the need for more government intervention in Bank of America and the wider banking sector overshadowed better-than-expected results from JPMorgan.

Shares in Bank of America sank 24.2 per cent to $7.73 on reports the bank was closing in on a fresh multibillion-dollar capital injection from Washington.

Airbus forecasts ‘very challenging’ year

By Kevin Done, Aerospace Correspondent, in Toulouse

Published: January 15 2009 09:32 | Last updated: January 15 2009 12:13

Airbus on Thursday said its new commercial aircraft orders had fallen sharply last year, as the European aerospace group forecast “a very challenging year” for the industry in 2009.

Analysts expect further steep declines in new orders during the next two years from the record level set in 2007, as airlines battle falling passenger and cargo traffic and difficulties in raising finance for new deliveries.

John Leahy, commercial director, forecast gross new orders this of between 300 and 400, down from 900 in 2008.

Net new orders fell by 42 per cent last year to 777, from a record 1,341 won in 2007.


Aircraft industry shocked by view from ground

By Kevin Done, Aerospace Correspondent

Published: January 13 2009 20:35 | Last updated: January 13 2009 20:35

Alarm bells are ringing for aircraft manufacturers.

The rows of parked aircraft around the world have been growing inexorably as airlines have been forced to cut capacity: first in response to surging fuel prices and now to recession.

Wow.  That is crazy.



"This is no regular cycle slowdown, but a complete collapse in foreign demand," said Lindsay Coburn, ING's trade consultant.

A bit scary.

Foreclosures increased 81 percent last year - Mortgage Mess- msnbc.com

"(AP) updated 7:20 a.m. MT, Thurs., Jan. 15, 2009
WASHINGTON - More than 2.3 million American homeowners faced foreclosure proceedings last year, an 81 percent increase from 2007, with the worst yet to come as consumers grapple with layoffs, shrinking investment portfolios and falling home prices.

Nationwide, more than 860,000 properties were actually repossessed by lenders, more than double the 2007 level, according to RealtyTrac, a foreclosure listing firm based in Irvine, Calif., which compiled the figures."

This is despite the fact that alt A and option arm loan resets will probably not result in the avalanche of foreclosures seen when sub-prime loans reset, since alt's and options are resetting at a time when the bank-to-bank lending rate is basically zero, and their reset numbers are based on that extremely low rate. Some people holding these loans might even see a reduction in their monthly mortage payment.

The next round of foreclosures (worst in California, Nevada, Florida and Arizona) will be the result of job losses, the downward spiral in home values and tight credit.

Sit tight...it will be a good time to buy in the near future.

Tom

Add: And one more reason to sit tight if you're considering buying in the near future...a new report out today indicates that 70% of the homes currently on banks' books have yet to hit the market.

via : http://www.lotustalk.com/forums/f68/economic-predictions-65419/index17.html

[tags] Foreclosure

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[youtube]lNS8IY_Td14[/youtube]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNS8IY_Td14

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strange enough though.. the USD is still "ok".

instead of dropping, it has actually increase in value. weird.

ok, US is printing all these money.. who's backing/buying them? my reading points to China.
so, what will happen if US defaults on them? what can China do?

what can we expect?

[zuoom]

on all odds, the USD is gaining ground.

perhaps it's still the currency to be in?

or is it just another "bubble" before it pops?

http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/02/markets/thebuzz/index.htm

Weak economy ... strong dollar
The bad news for the U.S. never seems to end. But despite all the doom and gloom, the dollar has emerged as the currency of choice once again. Here's why.

By Paul R. La Monica, CNNMoney.com editor at large
Last Updated: March 2, 2009: 3:46 PM ET

AMERICA'S MONEY CRISIS

    * Blockbuster seeks funds, not bankruptcy
    * Stocks at 12-year lows
    * Fed program promises $1 trillion lending
    * Bernanke defends latest AIG bailout
    * Pending home sales hit record low


...and also against the yen. (Click either chart to see the dollar versus other currencies.)

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks are at their lowest levels in about 12 years. The economy shrunk by more than 6% in the fourth quarter. Companies are laying off people left and right.

And oh yeah, the government has essentially nationalized Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and AIG (AIG, Fortune 500).

There's no denying that the U.S. economy is in tatters. But how about that dollar? Yup, despite the unrelenting stream of bad news about the economy and markets, the greenback has stood out as one of the top performing currencies this year.
Talkback: Will the U.S. economy recover before the rest of the world?

The dollar is up about 9% against the euro and 7% versus the Japanese yen so far in 2009. It's also edged slightly higher against the British pound. What gives?

Well, as strange as it may sound, investors may be betting that the U.S., which arguably led the rest of the world into the global recession, will also be the first to emerge from the downturn.

"The U.S. was one of the first nations to respond to the weakness with aggressive monetary policy measures. So it could be one of the first countries out while Japan and Europe might be the last ones out," said Kathy Lien, director of currency research at GFT, a foreign exchange and futures brokerage firm.

Along those lines, even though most of the financial bailout packages have so far been greeted with almost universal disdain by investors in stocks, currency strategists are encouraged that the U.S. is taking more an active role in trying to fix the banking system.

"There a belief that the U.S. is doing more than any other nation to correct their problems. That stems from the different investments by the Fed and the Treasury in the financial sector," said Andrew Busch, global FX market strategist with BMO Capital Markets in Chicago.

Mind you, this does not mean a recovery is around the corner. Lien thinks the U.S. economy is likely to deteriorate further before things finally improve.

Still, as bad as the U.S. economy is faring, it's much worse in other parts of the world. So the dollar is being viewed as a relative pocket of stability.

"The only reason the dollar is rallying is because it is a safe haven play. The problems in Europe are much deeper," Lien said. "Investors are focusing on a prolonged downturn in the U.S. economy and the ramifications for the rest of the world. If the U.S. doesn't recover soon, nobody else will recover."

Busch agreed that the dollar now seems to be the only safe haven among currencies. He pointed out that with interest rates at practically zero, investors are flocking to U.S. Treasurys, despite concerns about what he referred to as a "zeppelin-ing" -- as opposed to merely "ballooning" -- increase in the federal budget deficit this year.

Of course, the dollar rally could quickly come to an end if nations like China, a big buyer of Treasurys, suddenly lose faith in the U.S. But there are no signs of that happening just yet.

To that end, Jacob Oubina, currency strategist at online currency trading site Forex.com, pointed out that last week's U.S. Treasury auctions were oversubscribed.

Meanwhile, he noted that demand was weak for a federal bond auction in Germany earlier this year, a sign that not all countries are going to find it easy to raise new funds to pay for bailouts or other fiscal stimulus.

What that means is that the rest of the world still appears to be confident in the financial solvency of the U.S., even as many Americans seem to doubt that this recession will end anytime soon.

"The global investor still thinks the U.S. can pay off their debts -- no matter how big they are at the moment," Oubina said.  To top of page
First Published: March 2, 2009: 12:03 PM ET

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Published March 20, 2009

US$ hit by Fed move, more losses feared

By LARRY WEE
SENIOR CORRESPONDENT

THE US dollar notched one of its sharpest losses this year in Asian trading yesterday, following news that the US central bank would pump more than US$1 trillion into the banking system over the coming months.



What one commentator described as the Fed's 'shock and awe' move was the Wednesday night news that it intends to buy up to US$300 billion in long-term US Treasury paper over the next six months, as well as up to US$750 billion in mortgage-backed securities and US$100 billion worth of agency debt over the remainder of 2009.
The financial market response to the Fed's aggressive quantitative easing (or QE) move came fast and furious. The yield on benchmark 10-year US Treasury notes tumbled half a per cent to a two-month low of 2.47 per cent in overnight trading, Wall Street's stock indices closed yet another 2 per cent higher, and the greenback fell back sharply.
Compared to its Wednesday highs, the greenback tumbled as much as four Swiss centimes, three Japanese yen and two Singapore cents yesterday in Asia. On a broader indexed basis, it sank more than 3 per cent, reportedly its worst one-day percentage fall in more than 20 years.
Elsewhere, the euro and pound sterling each jumped as much as five US cents and Down Under, the Australian and New Zealand currencies ended more than two US cents firmer. All told, the greenback finished the Asian session with outsized losses of more than 3 per cent each at 95.58 yen, 1.5394 Swiss francs, US$1.2486 per euro, and 54.38 US cents per New Zealand dollar. Closer to home, it was at least one per cent worse off at S$1.5190, 50.49 Indian rupees and 1,397 Korean won.
Explained UOB researchers yesterday: 'This could signal a beginning of a weakening US dollar trend and while inflation remains on a backburner for now, longer term inflation concerns are likely to return as the economy turns and banks convert the existing liquidity into credit. 'This we think is supportive of commodities, especially crude oil and metals, and should structurally benefit the Canadian and Australian dollars.'
Others made the point that in the current circumstances, the effect of monetary policy responses will be less than effective when compared to fiscal initiatives.
JP Morgan researchers, however, cautioned: 'Despite the bearish US dollar reaction in Asia, we warn that Asia's resolve to stem US dollar weakness remains strong, even if they are unlikely to pursue QE for now.'
In terms of market positioning, however, one senior market player warned that currency traders may have already positioned themselves for a stronger greenback versus the Singapore dollar ahead of next month's semi-annual monetary policy review by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
That said, Alan Ruskin of RBS suggested that there was little mileage to be gained from trying to fight the printing press either. 'This could be cast as a sign of desperation, but confirms that (Fed Chairman Ben) Bernanke will do whatever it takes to get some hold of the problem,' he said.

via : http://www.singsupplies.com/showthread.php?t=21879

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when someone dumps that much of USD into the market, that's only normal.

[zuoom]

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE52H2CY20090318

Originally Posted by reuters
U.N. panel says world should ditch dollar
Wed Mar 18, 2009 11:16am EDT
By Jeremy Gaunt, European Investment Correspondent

LUXEMBOURG (Reuters) - A U.N. panel will next week recommend that the world ditch the dollar as its reserve currency in favor of a shared basket of currencies, a member of the panel said on Wednesday, adding to pressure on the dollar.

Currency specialist Avinash Persaud, a member of the panel of experts, told a Reuters Funds Summit in Luxembourg that the proposal was to create something like the old Ecu, or European currency unit, that was a hard-traded, weighted basket.

Persaud, chairman of consultants Intelligence Capital and a former currency chief at JPMorgan, said the recommendation would be one of a number delivered to the United Nations on March 25 by the U.N. Commission of Experts on International Financial Reform.

"It is a good moment to move to a shared reserve currency," he said.

Central banks hold their reserves in a variety of currencies and gold, but the dollar has dominated as the most convincing store of value -- though its rate has wavered in recent years as the United States ran up huge twin budget and external deficits.

......................