[R] - Worldwide

[zuoom]

another R.

Rollover.

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2009/09/last-chance-to-get-out.html

Last Chance to Get Out?



1930 The market is poised to rollover. This chart from 1930 (courtesy EWI) shows how we have traced back to the same area of the end of the rally in 1930: the 'fourth of the prior third' of the big drop the prior Fall. The 'fourth' is a bounce after a deep fall in the third wave; the psychology is that this where a lot of folks bought into trying to catch the bottom back then, and got caught out; now they are given a last chance to bail out and recover their paper loss.

Will they bail? Right now insiders are selling, institutions are lightening up - and the poor sap retail investor is jumping in. A perfect time for the smart money to get out!

If they do, this rally stalls and down we go. If the little guy jumps in enthusiastically, the smart money will steadily sell into him, and the market could continue a slow creep up towards Dow10K. Watch the arena the small guy tends to ignore, Forex: a Dollar reversal signals a Dow top.   

The S&P has already gotten to the fourth-of-a-third level; the Dow got right into the middle of that range today at 9714, right between 9654 and 9794. This morning the little wave ii had a continuation, then the wave iii was the strong rise during the afternoon. Perhaps a wave iv pause tomorrow or Thurs, then a final pop up. If this wave structure is correct, the market could meander up to the autumnal equinox of Sep20, this Sunday; meaning topping Friday or Monday.

It is a bit disconcerting to watch volume be so light, even after the pros returned from the four day week last week. Even in Forex we see lighter volume, with the USD dropping but an end nearing. This lighter volume is a validation of a topping market (and bottoming Dollar).

Seems the public is edgy. Obama gets a bounce after his speech last week; the bounce has dissipated already. Where the leaders pronounce a recovery, the populace feels continued pain.

The edginess is a reflection of a brewing lack of trust. The Obama Bubble burst in August, and seems unrecoverable. He just had his little 'wave 2' rally, and it was brief. A populist rally surged into DC on 9/12, and was barely reported despite having at least half a million protestors. What can the public do to grab the attention of these leaders and get them to wake up? Their edginess is shown to be impotence, and is turning to anger. Not a mood to drive a rally!

Unemployment



This edginess has a simple cause: unemployment is worse than the official figures say. The reported 9.7% is people receiving unemployment benefits over the presumed labor force. Most people know that 9.7% understates, since many of the early unemployed are no longer getting benefits, and many others have taken part-time work and dropped off benefits. Perhaps most telling is the calculation of the presumed labor force is itself suspect. The Labor Dept has birth/death adjustments which skew the whole analysis. 

Here is a simpler chart: employed over population. It tells the story: employment peaked in 2000 and has dropped since; currently it is falling off a cliff.

These charts and a lot of concurrent analysis was released today in Prechter's monthly EWT. Worth reading. He notes in several areas, such as real estate, the private economy is NOT coming back. Again, the populist anger emerges when people see this around them.

The now famous Congressman who broke protocol and shouted out that Obama was a liar caught the popular mood: who would you want us to believe, Mr. President: our eyes or your lies? I hear he is raising record amounts of campaign money from small contributors. People are voting with their pocketbooks, and it is not into stocks, nor into the economy, but into a popular revolt against the faded icon of Hope and Change.   

===============

something that was mentioned to another.

if you were stuck in the last dip and held out.
now would be time to bail out if you are not keen to see you value go south anytime soon.

[tags] Rollover

[zuoom]

Geithner Sees ‘Early Signs’ the Global Economy Is Rebalancing
By Christopher Anstey

Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said there are “early signs” that the world is addressing imbalances in spending and saving that contributed to the global crisis.

Asia is “leading the world” back to recovery, Geithner told reporters in a joint press briefing with counterparts from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group following a meeting in Singapore today. American exports are also growing at a healthier rate, he said.

Finance chiefs have repeatedly called in meetings in recent weeks for reduced reliance on Asian savings and American spending, a pattern that analysts say held down U.S. borrowing costs and fueled a credit bubble. Geithner today pledged to cut the record U.S. fiscal deficit, a legacy of reliance on overseas funds and unprecedented stimulus spending to counter the crisis.

“We bear a special responsibility” because of the U.S. economy’s global role, Geithner said in the press conference. Asked whether the dollar’s slide may help spur American exports and aid his nation’s recovery, he said that it’s “very important” to the U.S. to have a “strong” dollar.

Geithner praised China for playing a major role in the global recovery, after being asked his reaction to a People’s Bank of China statement yesterday that some analysts said hinted at more openness to allowing the yuan to gain.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chris Anstey at canstey@bloomberg.net

via : http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atx7orpMxEqY&pos=2

======================

what kind of balance would there be?

[zuoom]

another [R].

Rebound.

WASHINGTON DC : Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong says Singapore’s economy has made a remarkable recovery from a year ago and he expects a good year going forward.

He said the rebound from the downturn surpassed expectations. He was reacting to Singapore’s strong economic performance for the first quarter of the year.

Speaking to the Singapore media in Washington DC before flying off to Chicago for the second leg of his US visit, Mr Lee said he does not believe the strong growth will continue indefinitely because it is just not possible.

He said: "Our target is 3 to 5 per cent growth over the next 10 years. This year is off to a very good start — I expect we should have a good year.

"And we should make the most of these conditions this year to get momentum for our longer term plans to upgrade the productivity, transform the economy and to continue to work at our tripartite relationship between the unions, employers and the government, so that the next time something hits us, we are stronger than we were the last time."

The Trade and Industry Ministry has also revised Singapore’s inflation rate from 2 per cent to between 2.5 and 3.5 per cent. But Mr Lee does not expect prices for daily necessities — like food or clothes — to increase drastically.

As for rising property prices, he said the government had already introduced measures to prevent a bubble from forming.

He added: "When there is a momentum like this for the housing market, it doesn’t change on the dime. You don’t introduce new measures and tomorrow, straight away, prices drop. If you did, you probably are risking a crash and you don’t want to cause destabilisation.

"So we’ll have to watch it over the next few months and decide whether we need to do something more or not. If we need to, we will — we have some instruments.

"But when you’re dealing with property prices, we can influence the major directions. We can’t influence the day—to—day ups—and—downs and the value of every individual flat."

On his assessment of the 2—day Nuclear Security Summit involving 47 world leaders, Mr Lee called it a useful meeting.

He said US President Barack Obama did a good job in bringing the subject of nuclear proliferation to the forefront. This enabled the various countries to discuss and make commitments to mitigate the risk of nuclear terrorism.

During his stay in the capital, Mr Lee also had meetings with some members of the US administration and the business community on the sidelines of the summit.

He said the feedback he received was that they were quietly confident the US economy is recovering. "There are still some headwinds and they may not come back to full robust growth for some time."

He added: "And even when they do come back to robust growth, they cannot come back to where they were, which is consuming more than they were producing and covering the difference by borrowing.

"So it will be a different balance and the world will have to get used to this different balance. But as long as it keeps on an even keel like this, I think that provides the conditions for Asia to continue its growth and its transformation."

via : http://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/showthread.php?t=2731941

but as per law of gravity. what goes up will come down.

are we ready for the downward motion?

[zuoom]

[R] for Ready.

are you?

[zuoom]

after reading all the various reports n opinions on how the next FC is coming along...
here's anther R.

[R] for Really?




O RLY?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O_RLY%3F

O RLY? is an Internet phenomenon, typically presented as an image macro featuring a Snowy Owl.[1] The phrase "O RLY?", an abbreviated form of "Oh, really?", is popularly used in Internet forums in a sarcastic manner, often in response to an obvious, predictable,[2][3] or blatantly false statement. Similar owl image macros followed the original to present different views, including images with the phrases "YA RLY" (Yeah, really.) and "NO WAI!!" (No way!).[4][5]

[zuoom]

[R] - Relief

Relief Rally

Amazing what the little R can stand for.

[zuoom]

and R for Random.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_walk

via : http://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/showthread.php?t=3464445&page=386

[zuoom]

and R for Reflexivity.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflexivity_%28social_theory%29

Reflexivity refers to circular relationships between cause and effect. A reflexive relationship is bidirectional with both the cause and the effect affecting one another in a situation that does not render both functions causes and effects. In sociology, reflexivity therefore comes to mean an act of self-reference where examination or action "bends back on", refers to, and affects the entity instigating the action or examination. In this sense, it usually refers to the capacity of an individual agent to recognize forces of socialization and alter her or his place in the social structure.

An example is the interaction between beliefs and observations in a marketplace. If traders believe that prices will fall, they will sell - thus creating some downward pressure on prices relative to demand. Whereas if they believe prices will rise, they will buy - thereby playing a role in driving prices up.[1] Reflexivity is related to the concept of feedback and positive feedback.