[Article] It's all about confidence

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Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey

What is the degree of your optimism about the overall state of the economy? How confident are you about the stability of your household income? Quite high, and, very, are respective answers to the above questions, by the looks of it.



India has done exceedingly well in the latest edition of Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index, rebounded to reach its highest level since the third quarter of 2007, providing the most definitive sign that India is fast recovering from the economic downturn.

Now, just for a moment, let us try to lay down a basic functioning structure of a Consumer Confidence survey. If consumer confidence is higher, consumers boost the economic expansion of a country by doing more purchases. However, if confidence is lower, consumers tend to save more than they spend, prompting the contraction of the economy.
Last year’s Consumer Confidence report looked promising after a gloomy days of recession.

“The BRIC and Asian markets have recorded the greatest jumps in Consumer Confidence Indices in the past three months.

Consumer confidence in India jumped 13 Index points, and climbed 9 points in Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Indonesia. Consumer confidence rose 8 Index points in Taiwan and Brazil, and 7 points in Singapore, Turkey, Russia, Philippines and the UK.

The only exceptions to this upswing were in the USA and New Zealand, which held flat in the second quarter, with Germany the only country to register a decline of one Index point,” Jonathan Banks, Business Insights Director, The Nielsen Company was quoted as saying.

via : http://singsupplies.com/showthread.php?t=79972

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Japan Confidence Deteriorates for First Time Since Crisis
By Keiko Ujikane - Dec 15, 2010 10:02 AM GMT+0800
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-15/japan-manufacturer-confidence-deteriorates-first-time-since-end-of-crisis.html

Confidence among Japan’s largest manufacturers worsened for the first time since the end of the financial crisis last year as a stronger yen eroded export gains and the effect of government stimulus measures faded.

The quarterly Tankan index of sentiment at large manufacturers dropped to 5 in December from 8 in September, the Bank of Japan said in Tokyo. A positive number means optimists outnumber pessimists. Sentiment is expected to fall to minus 2 in March, and companies submitted the strongest forecast for the yen since data began in 1996, the data also showed.

Today’s report adds to concern that Japan’s economy may contract in the fourth quarter, and buttresses the case for the Bank of Japan to consider more monetary stimulus. Data for October showed industrial output fell by the most since February 2009, export growth moderated and the jobless rate rose.

“Japan’s economy will stay at a standstill until the end of the fiscal year” in March, said Yuichi Kodama, an economist at Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance Co., Japan’s third-biggest life insurer. “A trigger for the BOJ to ease further” would be an appreciation of the yen past 80 per dollar, he said.

The median estimate of 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a reading of 3. The deterioration in the confidence reading was the first since March 2009. The financial crisis faded in the second quarter of 2009 as banks recapitalized.

Stocks, Yen

Japanese stocks were little changed after the report, having risen this month on signs of stronger U.S. growth that’s also boosted the dollar against the yen. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.1 percent to 10,325.89 as of 10:40 a.m.

The yen fell 0.3 percent to 83.93 per dollar, leaving its gain for the year to date at 11 percent, the biggest among Group of 10 currencies. Large manufacturers expect the yen to trade at an average of 86.47 per dollar in the year through March, the highest level since the Tankan survey included the yen-forecast question in 1996, compared with the 89.66 predicted in September.

Fumio Ohtsubo, president of Panasonic Corp., the world’s largest maker of plasma televisions, said last week that the yen’s appreciation is making it tougher for the company to compete with its South Korean rivals, such as Samsung Electronics Co. The Korean won has risen 1.1 percent against the dollar this year, and fallen about 9 percent versus the yen.

“When you look at the value of yen and the won against the dollar, the yen has been gaining and the won has been declining,” Ohtsubo said. “That makes it very difficult for us to compete with South Korean makers in the U.S. or in Europe.”

Korean Competitiveness

South Korea’s unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a six- month low of 3.2 percent in November as the nation’s economic expansion encouraged manufacturers to hire more workers, Statistics Korea said in Gwacheon today. By contrast, Japan’s jobless rate rose to 5.1 percent in October.

Japan’s gross domestic product is expected to shrink at a 1.9 percent annual pace in the three months through December, according to a survey of 42 economists released Dec. 8 by the Economic Planning Association. Growth was 4.5 percent in the third quarter as incentives to buy cars and electronics spurred consumer spending.

The government’s subsidy program to buy fuel-efficient cars ended in September, prompting companies including Toyota Motor Corp. to reduce production in October.

Stimulus Fades

“Companies will likely stay cautious about the outlook for business conditions as it’s hard to gauge the level of domestic demand following the end of stimulus programs,” BNP’s Kono said.

The yen’s advance against the dollar may also cloud the outlook, economists said, even while the currency has retreated from the 15-year high set in November. Rohto Pharmaceutical Co. said last month that it cut its full-year profit forecast 7.4 percent, citing the strong yen.

“The yen is still staying at a high level, so it will likely weigh on manufacturer sentiment,” said Mitsumaru Kumagai, chief economist at Daiwa Institute of Research in Tokyo. The yen’s appreciation against the euro amid concern about Ireland’s fiscal woes is also weighing on sentiment, he said.

The Japanese parliament last month passed an extra budget to fund a stimulus package aimed at fighting deflation and combating the stronger yen. To foster growth, the Bank of Japan cut its benchmark interest rate and created a 5 trillion yen fund to buy bonds and assets, including real-estate investment trusts and exchange-traded funds. It said yesterday it will start buying the ETFs and Reits as soon as today.

‘Minority’ View

Given the recent gains in stocks and declines in the yen, “those expecting the BOJ to approve further easing measures at the next meeting are now in the minority,” said Naoki Iizuka, a senior economist at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo. Still, “if the Tankan or other indicators show a clear deterioration, it would open up the possibility of additional monetary easing.”

The central bank’s policy board is meeting on Dec. 20-Dec. 21 in their final meeting for 2010.

Still, stocks have risen this quarter and the yen has retreated from a 15-year high against the dollar amid optimism the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing may help the global recovery, boding well for Japan’s economy, said Susumu Kato at Credit Agricole CIB and CLSA.

Large companies plan to boost spending by 2.9 percent in the year ending March 31, more than the 2.4 percent planned three months ago. Economists forecast a 2.7 percent increase.

“The U.S. economy is showing signs of picking up and emerging nations have maintained robust growth,” said Kato, chief economist for Japan in Tokyo. “There will be no need to worry too much about the outlook for business and corporate earnings.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Keiko Ujikane in Tokyo at kujikane@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Chris Anstey at canstey@bloomberg.net

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one of the early indicator.

Freight Rates Tumbling as 35 Miles of Ships Passes Ore Demand
Bloomberg

At a time when analysts anticipate record profits for the biggest mining companies and a third year of gains in commodity prices, shipping lines carrying raw materials are set for the lowest freight rates since 2002.

Leasing costs for capesizes, 1,000-foot-long ships hauling iron ore and coal, will drop 34 percent to average $22,000 a day this year, according to the median in a Bloomberg survey of eight fund managers and analysts.

While Clarkson Plc, the world’s biggest shipbroker, expects seaborne trade in the two cargoes to exceed 2 billion metric tons for the first time this year, the 7 percent increase won’t be enough to eliminate a glut.

About 200 capesizes, spanning some 35 miles end-to-end, will leave shipyards this year, expanding the fleet by 18 percent, the Bloomberg survey showed.

Rates averaged $34,913 a day in the final three months of 2010,  33 percent more than in the previous quarter.

Tariffs are already plunging, dropping 7.7 percent today to $11,900, the lowest rate since Jan. 8, 2009, as ships leave yards in China, Japan, the Philippines and South Korea, according to data from the London-based Baltic Exchange, which publishes assessments for more than 50 shipping routes.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-10/freight-rates-poised-to-tumble-as-35-mile-line-of-ships-passes-coal-demand.html

via : http://singsupplies.com/showthread.php?t=84503

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it's all gone. there's no confidence.

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Confidence plunges, what's next?
Consumer confidence dropped 25% in August

Updated: Tuesday, 30 Aug 2011, 11:22 PM EDT
Published : Tuesday, 30 Aug 2011, 10:48 PM EDT

GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) - The latest index on consumer confidence took a nose-dive in August, causing some concern for economists.

Consumer spending makes up a big chunk of the nations economy, some 70%.

Still, stores across West Michigan are filled with shoppers, but looks can be deceiving.

Brandy Lancaster told 24 Hour News 8 that she plans to spend less money in the future, and why? "Because I have less money, so I don't have it to spend."

Lancaster is not alone, in the latest Consumer Confidence Index, consumers confidence dropped 25% in August to 44.5, the lowest level since April of 2009.

Consumers are saying they're less confident in business conditions, especially employment.

Tina Herdegen a college student said "I know for instance I'm an engineering major and I know a lot of fellow students who are majoring in engineering and they can't get jobs."

The economy and job prospect are even on the minds of high school students. "I've been told the job market will be better by the time I get out of college, but I guess we'll see" said Elizabeth Weitzel.

Consumers are also saying that they are less certain now that they will buy a car, a house, and the things that go with them.

But there are some mitigating factors. The Conference Board's director of Research told 24 Hour News 8 that this latest reading may have been skewed by the negative news this summer, the debt ceiling debate, the government's credit downgrade, the volatility in the stock market.

Another good sign, there was very little drop in how consumers are feeling about present conditions, people are only feeling bad about the next 6 months.

The Consumer Confidence Index has had it's ups and downs all year. It was up four months and down four months.

Actual consumer spending was up one half percent in July, that after being completely flat in May and June.

The Consumer Confidence Index is a reflection of what has or is happening in the economy, it doesn't predict what is to come.

Economists say the September index will give a better picture, and give more clues to indicate if we are in a recession.

Here is a look at consumer confidence year to date

Janurary: 64.8 UP
February: 72 UP
March: 63.8 DOWN
April: 66 UP
May: 61.7 DOWN
June: 57.6% DOWN
July: 59.2% UP
August: 44.5% DOWN

http://www.woodtv.com/dpp/your_money/Confidence-plunges,-what%27s-next%3F

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Baltic Sea Index Slumps to 25-Year Low
Published: Wednesday, 1 Feb 2012 | 7:07 PM ET
Text Size
By: Reuters
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46228631

The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates to ship dry commodities, fell to a more than 25-year low on Wednesday as a slump in cargo business and a mounting glut of vessels battered sentiment. 

AP

The overall index fell 18 points or 2.65 percent to 662 points, falling below the 663 point low hit on Dec. 5, 2008 during the financial crisis and its lowest since 1986.

"Despite the return of Chinese players from holidays, fixture activity has so far failed to recover," RS Platou Markets analyst Frode Morkedal said.

"We note almost non-existent spot bookings in line with the past weeks, likely a result of a wait-and-see stance being adopted by charterers. Tonnage lists continue to expand, postponing any major recovery in rates.   

The shipping sector in coming months is expected to face a supply glut and glum economic outlook, including concerns over Chinese demand for raw materials, which will pressure earnings.   

Weather and other disruptions in Australia and Brazil last month together with slower restocking due to an earlier Lunar New Year holiday in China this year have hit cargo activity in recent weeks.

"Chinese New Year was on Jan. 23 this year, the earliest since 2004. If history has anything to tell us, there is such as a thing as a post-New Year boost when it comes to the dry freight market, and it may yet be on its way," broker ICAP Shipping said.       

Iron ore shipments account for around a third of seaborne volumes on the larger capesizes, and brokers said price developments remained a key factor for dry freight. 

Capesizes, which typically transport 150,000 tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal, drove a rally late last year, helped by firmer coal and iron ore exports from Australia and Brazil after earlier weather disruptions as well as a pick-up in Japanese coal imports. A build-up of port congestion also provided support.       

The Baltic's capesize index fell 0.07 percent on Wednesday, with average daily earnings sliding to $5,327, their lowest since March 3 last year.       

Mounting Fleet Growth

Operating costs for capesizes were estimated around $7,500 to $8,000 a day.   

"While some modest improvement is possible as charterers return to the market after the holidays, we continue to expect the dry bulk rate environment to remain generally weak through the balance of 2012," Wells Fargo Securities senior analyst Michael Webber said.

The overall index, which gauges the cost of shipping commodities including iron ore, coal and grain, has fallen nearly 60 percent since the start of the year.     

"Given the state of the dry bulk market, any positive will be sorely welcome," Arctic Securities analyst Erik Nikolai Stavseth said.

The Baltic's panamax index fell 4.14 percent. Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually transport 60,000 to 70,000 tonne cargoes of coal or grains, reached $5,515 a day.   

Growing ship supply, which is outpacing commodity demand, is set to cap dry bulk freight rate gains in the coming months, with economic uncertainty, a financing squeeze and a slowdown in China adding to headwinds.     

"With continued double-digit fleet growth expected in 2012, the sector is likely to see a continued oversupply for the next 12 months," Deutsche Bank analyst Justin Yagerman said in a report.

"However, we would still expect rate volatility throughout the year, with seasonally strong rates in Q4. Beginning in Q1, we believe rates will remain seasonally weak through the end of summer."

Gartman: Ignore This Global Economic Indicator
Published: Wednesday, 1 Feb 2012 | 1:54 PM ET
By: Bruno J. Navarro
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46221876?__source=ft&par=ft

Once considered a key gauge of global economic activity, the Baltic Dry Shipping Index has withered to its lowest levels in 25 years. But the indicator has outlived its usefulness, investor Dennis Gartman said Wednesday.

“I used to look to them as an indicator of economic activity. Now I look at them as an indicator ship owner stupidity,” publisher of the widely followed Gartman Letter said on “Fast Money.”

The index has long been used by market insiders to gauge demand for dry commodities.

But Gartman said that correlation no longer holds true.

A couple of years ago when the Baltic index approached 11,000, “every ship owner in the world build new ships,” scrapping small ships for “monstrous” ones, he said.

“It has nothing to do with the global economy now. It has everything to do with bad banking and stupid ship owners.”

Contrarian trader and Veracruz founder Steve Cortes issued a broader warning beyond Gartman’s point.

“Shipping stocks are definitely names to be avoided, even if he’s right that Baltic dry is not indicative of the global economy these stocks have traded as poorly as the Baltic index,” he said.

Names to be avoided, Cortes said, include Diana Shipping [DSX  8.19    -0.15  (-1.8%)   ], which traded at $8.32 midday, down 29 percent year over year, and Frontline [FRO  5.02    -0.01  (-0.2%)   ], trading at $5.02, down 80 percent year over year.

Baltic index to ignore?