[COE] Up, Down, guess guess guess.

[zuoom]

COE prices fall across the board
- June 20, 2007
AsiaOne

June (2nd round)
COE PRICE

A    15,591    
B    18,891    
C    5,501    
D    1,053    
E    18,539    

Despite the upcoming 2% GST increase which kicks in next month, demand for cars eased slightly as COE prices fell across all categories in the latest round of bids.

Category A COEs for cars up to 1600cc and taxis registered a $590 drop (3.65%) to $15,591.

After last week's spike that threatened to break the $20K mark, category B COEs for large cars above 1600cc fell by $911 ( 4.6%) to $18,891.

COE prices for goods vehicles and buses (Category C) fell by the most, plunging $1,388 to $5,501.

Motorcycle COE prices fell by $199 or nearly 16% over the last bidding session's result to settle at $1,053.

Open category COEs, which can be used for any class of vehicle, fell by $812 (4.2%) to $18,539.

source : Asiaone Motoring

[zuoom]

Bidding status as at 22/08/2007 16:00 hrs
Category Current COE Price ($) Quota Bids Received
A Car (1600cc & below) &Taxi 8,118 2,189 2,315
B Car (Above 1600 cc) 16,010 1,124 1,288
C Goods Vehicle & Bus 6,890 452 628
D Motorcycle 1,189 481 648
E Open 17,302 1,093 1,538

via : vrz
*fleek

=============

as hear from radio. it's a "glitch". Raymond Tang LTA mentioned that he call many other car dealer and they said that at 3 plus pm, system was down, ie: cannot place bid.

hmm, glitch as in technical? or glitch as in the stock market?

[drdre69]

yeahhhh, time to get Golf GT

[zuoom]

from Carbuyer:

Mixed results for this week’s COE auction are a signal that it might be...

THE MARKET FOR Certificates Of Entitlement saw a dramatic decline in prices for Category A certificates, which plunged $4,598 to end this week’s auction at $12,401.

Category A certificates can be used to register cars up to 1.6 litres in engine capacity, or taxis.

The Category B COE (for cars above 1.6 litres) wound up at $17,589 when bidding ended, registering a climb of $487, and proving that there’s still plenty of life in the segment of the car market that involves larger models.

The Open Category certificate (which can be used for any kind of vehicle, but is typically used only for passenger cars) was priced at $18,000 when the auction closed, trading sideways from the results seen earlier this month.

What’s interesting about this week’s results is that given the divergence in pricing direction for Categories A and B, some industry watchers feel that a two-tier car market is developing.

Much like how an improved economic climate seems to have impacted the luxury end of the property market most dramatically, there are reasons to think that the same thing is happening on a smaller scale in the car market.

THE CAT A STORY
Cat A’s price collapse gives credence to motor dealers’ tales of woe – with some major players telling CarBuyer that their sales have fallen by half or more lately – the low prices are likely to give the market a boost.

Nothing draws buyers in like a sharp COE drop, after all, and today’s result counts as a big one.

“This kind of thing is good for us,” says one senior manager from an authorised distributor for a Japanese brand. “At least people will wake up.”

Dealers won’t slash prices for their Cat A models by the full extent of the COE drop, of course. Remember, this week’s COEs will have been secured for buyers who booked their cars last weekend or earlier, and those who buy a car today will have to secure a COE in November.

Therefore, dealers have to price their cars to take into account next round’s COE results, not this week’s.

If, as expected, showrooms become crowded again because buyers are stirred into action by the thought of a $12,401 Cat A COE, and dealers collect plenty of orders as a result, November’s COEs are bound to cost more.

Throw in the fact that there is a three-week break between now and the next COE auction on November 5th, and there’s even more likelihood that the market will rebound from this week’s result.

COE auctions are held on the first and third Mondays of every month, and this usually means a two-week gap between them. However, some months (like October) have five Mondays in them, which leads to an extra week before the COE market opens again.

This extra week effectively gives dealers 50 percent more time to collect orders, resulting in higher demand for COEs that typically causes a ’three-week bounce’.

Even if dealers do slash their prices dramatically, history has shown that once the orders start piling up, the car industry realises that it is going to have to bid aggressively to secure the COEs for its customers, and raises car prices in a series of steps, giving it the financial firepower to bid strongly.

The lesson there is that if you’re tempted by any big price cuts, you might do well to act fast, because dealers certainly won’t wait three weeks before putting prices back up again.

THE CAT B STORY
Far more interesting is the Category B situation. Judging from the small rise in prices, this end of the market is still going strong, and one product manager we spoke to credits the strong economy.

“The economy is good, so pay is getting better and people are more optimistic,” he says. “Cat B is driven by upgrade customers, and the people buying these cars are the people who are enjoying the fruits of the economy more than the man-in-the-street.”

In other words, Cat B remains healthy due to buyers who are feeling the benefits of a strong economy, and who can move from their 1.6-litre sedans into a small MPV or executive car.

Indeed, the signs are there. Luxury car sales are up (witness Mercedes-Benz’s strong sales of the new C-Class), the executive car market is up (the Honda Accord and Toyota Camry are collectively selling much more strongly than last year), and parallel importers (who do a roaring trade with the Toyota Wish and Honda Stream) are coming on ever stronger.

The success of these Cat B models means that the fundamentally financially strong buyer is still buying.

Another market indicator worth looking at: deregistrations (or the scrapping of cars). Last year 4,509 Cat A passenger cars were scrapped every month, on average. This year the monthly average has been 3,498, a 22.4 percent drop.

As for Category B, deregistrations have dropped, too, but much less dramatically, dipping just 12.2% from 2,391 a month to 2,098 on average.

Why is this significant? Because a deregistration usually paves the way for a new car sale, and the scrapping of Cat A cars having fallen so much is a signal that many people who drive such cars are hanging onto them rather than scrapping them as part of a new car transaction.

Whether they’re stuck with their existing cars because their outstanding financing obligations are too heavy, or because they simply haven’t seen their economic outlook improve enough to comfortably accommodate a new car doesn’t really matter – whatever it is, Cat A drivers aren’t scrapping their cars as much as before, which suggests they’re not buying new cars.

No such worries for Cat B customers, who are most likely in a better financial position to upgrade, and who seem freer to scrap their cars for new ones.

Indeed, if the car market really is fragmenting into a two-tier one, keeping a close eye on the deregistration figures should help us all to see it coming.

Category A – CAR (1600cc AND BELOW) AND TAXI: $12,401
52-week high: $17,999
52-week low: $5,200
Quota: 2,158
Bids: 2,472

EVEN THOUGH CAT A certificate is $4,598 cheaper than two weeks ago, next month’s auction will almost certainly result in a pricier COE, so most dealers will have to factor some sort of cushion into their pricing. In other words, don’t expect cars to be cheaper by $4,598.

Market leader Borneo Motors (which distributes Toyota and Lexus cars) cut Cat A prices by between $2,500 and $4,000, for example. Over at Kah Motor, Honda prices are down $3,500.

Category B – CAR (ABOVE 1600cc): $17,589
52-week high: $19,802
52-week low: $6,002
Quota: 1,133
Bids: 1,370

WITH TONGUES WAGGING in the industry about the new Mercedes-Benz C-Class and the new Honda Stream selling like hotcakes, it’s all too easy to blame Cat B’s strength on these two models. But it would be overly simplistic, too.

“You can’t say two cars are the whole market,” says a source from Kah Motor, scoffing at the idea. But then Kah Motor sells roughly 300 Streams a month. Chip in another 200 from parallel importers, and you have 500 cars – a meaningful number. Still, perhaps we should think of these cars’ success as a sign of the same overall economic forces keeping Cat B healthy, rather than the cause of Cat B’s rise.


Category E – OPEN: $18.000
52-week high: $19,510
52-week low: $10,803
Quota: 1,088
Bids: 1,586

CARS IN CERTAIN corners of the market have been selling strongly. The small Sports Utility Vehicle market is strongly up compared to last year, for instance, driven by cars like the Honda CR-V. The executive and luxury sedan markets are also up overall, compared to a year ago, largely on the back of strong performance by the Toyota Camry.

Given that the quota of Cat B COEs is fixed, plenty of Open Cat certificates must be being called into play to accommodate the growth in that end of the market, then. Expect Cat E prices to track those of Cat B fairly closely, then.

For cars up to 1,600cc, prices plunged by more than S$4,500 to close at an eight-month low of S$12,401.
Christopher Tan

Wed, Oct 17, 2007
The Straits Times

CERTIFICATE of entitlement (COE) for cars up to 1,600cc plunged by more than $4,500 to close at an eight-month low of $12,401 on Wednesday.

The unexpected result puts the mainstay car COE premium far below that for commercial vehicle COE, which climbed $1,900 to finish at a year-high of $15,889.

It is believed to be the first time a commercial vehicle COE has ended higher than a car COE.

Motor traders point to a weakened demand for cars - especially replacement demand - for the car premium drop.

"Buyers probably felt the (previous) $17,000 level was too high, and were waiting for rates to come down,'' said Mr Mark Choong, managing director of Toyota distributor Borneo Motors. "The PSLE exam period two weeks ago might also have kept many parents away from showrooms.''

Other motor traders said the slowdown in number of cars scrapped this year had also affected demand.

'Replacement demand is really, really down,'' said Mr A C Neo, marketing director of Nissan distributor Tan Chong.

He added that many car owners today have 'over-commtted' on the car loans, which means they cannot sell their cars without having to fork out a large sum to pay the bank.

'This over-commitment is really bad for the trade,'' Mr Neo noted. Jawdrop

The crunch came when Borneo Motors reduced prices of its bestselling Altis cars over the weekend by $2,500. Even then, there were not many takers.

The market weakness does not apply to bigger and more expensive cars, though. COE for cars above 1,600cc rose by nearly $500 to close at $17,589. Open COE, used mainly for bigger cars, ended unchanged at $18,000.

'This segment is less price-sensitive,'' Mr Choong said.

Motor traders attribute the surge in commercial vehicle COE to speculators, who are securing these transferable COEs in hope of making a fast buck reselling them.

The supply of commercial vehicle COE between now and March has been reduced substantially to reflect a big drop in the number of such vehicles taken off the road in the past six months.

Motorcycle COE ended $51 lower at $1,050.

Car dealers have cut prices of smaller cars. For instance, the Toyota Vios now starts from $53,488, $2,500 less than previously.

Traders expect premiums to rebound in the next round three weeks from now.

via : MCF
*Ahyoo2002

==========

as expected. 12K range plus minus couple of Ks.

downward pressure is expected with more ERPs.. and the dreaded GPS enable device for tracking usage. (o, horror!)

[tags] COE, ERP

[Silver Bullet]

Time to buy motorcycle...wahaha...

[zuoom]

via : http://www.mycarforum.com/forum/General_C1/General_Car_Discussion_F1/COE_-_2008_May_1st_bidding_exercise_P2346952-9

Summary:

1) COE drop across the board, except for Cat D (Motocycle) despite many car dealers still said COE will rise to > $20k soon
2) Cat A COE at lowest point for 2008
3) Where is the Altis effect?
4) Again, the numbers of bidders received (which can be use as an indicator of how many people keen on new cars) are all time low.


Bidding status as at 07/05/2008 16:01 hrs
Category Current COE Price ($) Quota Bids Received******Over Allocation Bids......Diff
A Car (1600cc & below) &Taxi 11,009 2,053 2,211******158......-$4591
B Car (Above 1600 cc) 15,889 1,101 1,230******129......-$1621
C Goods Vehicle & Bus 15,889 384 493*********......-$2262
D Motorcycle 1,289 447 569*********......-$137
E Open 16,500 886 1,416******530......-$1951

[zuoom]

VEH C | May1st | May2nd | Jun1st |
----------------------------------
CAT A | 11,009 | 15,701 | 14,590 | Down
CAT B | 15,889 | 17,113 | 14,640 | Down
CAT C | 15,889 | 14,756 | 13,501 | Down
CAT D | 01,289 | 01,109 | 01,083 | Down
CAT E | 16,500 | 16,700 | 16,301 | Down

Bidding status as at 04/06/2008 16:00 hrs

via : http://www.mycarforum.com/forum/COE_-_2008_June_1st_bidding_exercise_P2392439/#2392439

[zuoom]

COE Open Bidding

JUNE 2008 2nd Open Bidding Exercise has ended on 18/06/2008 16:00 hrs
Bidding status as at 18/06/2008 16:01 hrs
Category    Current COE Price ($)    Quota    Bids Received
A    Car (1600cc & below) &Taxi    14,101    2,037    2,319
B    Car (Above 1600 cc)    14,689    1,099    1,280
C    Goods Vehicle & Bus    12,002    383    550
D    Motorcycle    1,102    447    631
E    Open    15,459    878    1,352

via : http://www.onemotoring.com.sg/1m/coe/coeDetail.html

[tags] : COE

[zuoom]

SINGAPORE : COE prices for all categories of vehicles fell in the latest 3—day bidding exercise which ended on Wednesday.

The biggest drop was seen in the COE price for bigger cars of more than 1,600cc — down S$1,266 to S$14,235.

The COE premium for cars 1,600cc and below fell S$584 to S$14,101, while those in the Open Category — where the certificates are usually used to buy cars — went down by S$803 to S$14,858.

In the Goods Vehicles and Bus Category, the COE price fell S$300 to S$12,659.

The motorcycle COE was down S$62 to S$1,489. — CNA /ls

read it via : http://sgforums.com/forums/2/topics/325076

[wyv9]

It will still go down...

[zuoom]

you are right.

=============

COE prices for all categories slide

COE for cars up to 1,600cc registered the biggest fall, dropping 11.3 per cent to $12,501 and COE for cars above 1,600cc was next, falling 9.5 per cent to $12,889. -- ST PHOTO: STEVEN LEE CT
CERTIFICATES of entitlement (COE) slid across the board on Wednesday, with car premiums closing at one of the year's lowest levels.

COE for cars up to 1,600cc registered the biggest fall, dropping 11.3 per cent to $12,501. COE for cars above 1,600cc was next, falling 9.5 per cent to $12,889.

The Open COE, used mainly for cars, ended 5.1 per cent lower at $14,101.

COE for commercial vehicles dipped by 0.6 per cent to $12,589, while motorcycle COE fell by 5.1 per cent to $1,413.

via : http://forums.delphiforums.com/sunkopitiam/messages?msg=39.1 (the new kopitam since the old SBF is closed.)

[zuoom]

something from MCF:

COEs quota to be cut


Wed, Sep 17, 2008
The Straits Times



THE Land Transport Authority is expected to announce a cut in COE numbers for the October-March period later on Wednesday.

Motor industry sources reckon the reduction to be anywhere between 10 and 20 per cent, with the car COE supply bearing the brunt of the mid-quota year adjustment.

The announcement is likely to come after the end of Wednesday's tender execise at 4pm.

via : http://www.mycarforum.com/forum/COEs_quota_to_be_cut_P2532783/#2532783

hmm, COE will probably have a little spike. but i would say it will be under the 18K mark.
average is now around the 14K region.

[Vorsprung durch Technik]

with financial crisis globally, perhaps it will drop further instead.

[Silver Bullet]

Nope..with the reduction in COE quota in Oct, it'l prob go higher imo.. 

[zuoom]

hmm.

my bet for next year. 15K. then in the longer future, 10K mark.

=======================

More motorists hang on to their cars

In an uncertain economy, less mileage means less wearing out of the machines and therefore, a decline in deregistration. -SUT
Tan Dawn Wei

Tue, Sep 23, 2008
The Sunday Times

Uncertain economy, high fuel prices and poor resale market preventing many from going for new ones .

Assistant engineer Horace Soh has been thinking about selling his Nissan Sunny lately.

After all, he has had the car for five years and that is when owners here usually upgrade, downgrade or sell their wheels.

But with an uncertain economy, high petrol prices and little prospect of fetching a good resale price, the 37-year-old father of two is keeping his car for now.

"Job security is one thing to consider. And when you get a new car, it's a new liability as you'll have to stick with it for another three to five years. How will you get rid of it if the economy takes a turn for the worse?" he said.

Singapore's car population has been on the up and up. There were 539,540 passenger cars at the end of July, 8.1 per cent more than at the same time last year.

But it is not because more people are turning up at showrooms.

Rather, fewer cars are being taken off the roads.

This year's certificate of entitlement (COE) supply provides for 6,388 cars to be scrapped or re-exported a month.

But between January and July, an average of only 5,190 cars were deregistered each month - 12 per cent fewer than the same period last year.

Mr Tony Tan, marketing director at Borneo Motors which sells Toyota cars, said an uncertain economy, inflation and the higher cost of driving contribute to people driving less or keeping their cars longer.

"If people use less, they don't see much wear and tear and the mileage is lower. This will cause deregistration to decline and we can expect this for a while," he said.

Sales of new cars have also dropped: 58,777 were registered in the first seven months of this year, down from 65,973 during the same period last year.

"The psychological position of the consumers is, better hold on to the old car and save for a rainy day," said Mr Jacky Wong, director of Richburg Motors. He has changed tack to promote hybrid cars that are less fuel-thirsty.

Another reason is that there is little overseas demand for local cars as the Singapore dollar is stronger than many other currencies.

Cars are usually bound for Russia, Africa and Caribbean countries.

Hefty loans - up to 10 years - have also been a disincentive for drivers to switch cars. They have to fork out a sizeable lump sum in cash to redeem existing loans.

Despite more people retaining their old cars, motor workshops have not seen more business. Workshop owner Eric Tan said he receives fewer orders now at his Bukit Merah garage from car dealers to touch up used models for overseas markets.

He used to get eight to 10 such cars per month but has worked on only two in the past three months.

"There are many workshops and it's very competitive," he said.

The Government is hoping that its new policy - which kicked in on Sept 1 - of returning cash instead of handing out a paper rebate to offset taxes on a new car will encourage motorists to scrap or export their cars and switch to public transport.

But those in the industry doubt it will lure many to give up their wheels for cash.

"Cars are still very aspirational purchases. Owners are not likely to suddenly decide - in huge numbers - that they don't want to drive anymore, unless the economy takes a dive or if fuel prices skyrocket," said Borneo Motors' Mr Tan.

Mr Wong feels the move may nudge some people to scrap their cars, but not necessarily discourage them from buying another.

"You want to spend the cash and the most immediate desire is to buy a better car," he said.

via : http://www.mycarforum.com/forum/More_motorists_hang_on_to_their_cars_P2541961/#2541961